U.S stock market trading slightly lower following recent index records, focus turns to crude oil

June 21, 2017
By Vlad Karpel

Major U.S indexes are seeing mixed performance today as investors see more slumps in tech shares, amidsts analyst concerns that we may be seeing another bubble for the beleaguered sector. After a 20% drop into the bear-market on Tuesday, crude oil prices are starting to build back up following indications from OPEC that more output cuts are being considered.

The DJIA is currently down 0.11%, or 23.82 points, at 21,443. The Nasdaq-100 is up 0.50% at 6,219 and the S&P 500 is currently trading at 2,434 which is down 0.12% from the open.

Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows  mixed signals. Today’s negative vector figure of -0.35% eases and reversed into positive movement within six trading sessions. Today’s predicted support and resistance is 2,428.85 (± 3.83) and 2,441.97 (± 3.85), respectively. The predicted close today is 2,433.21.   



Crude oil prices are struggling to recuperate today, following news of a second weekly decline in U.S domestic supplies, as well as a statement from Iran’s oil minister which indicated consideration for further output cuts. Continued supply drops from the U.S and further signals for continued global output cuts should start to firm up support for the crude oil market. West Texas Intermediate for August delivery is currently priced at $42.45 per barrel, down 2.44% from the open.  

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows strong downward movement after a brief positive reversal. The fund is currently trading at $8.71, which is down 2.68% from the open. Today’s prediction sees support at $8.78 (± 0.06) and resistance at $9.03 (± 0.06). The predicted close for today is $8.89. Vector figures show -0.05% for today, oscillating briefly but moving to -1.36% within four trading sessions.  All vector figures are based on today’s market conditions.  



The price for August gold is currently up 0.23% at $1,246.30 a troy ounce. Gold prices are seeing volatile movements today with two factors weighing in: an uncertain but likely additional rate hike from the Fed this year, as well as a firming U.S dollar. Investors continue to shift into equities at an opportune time. Gold becomes less attractive to investors holding foreign currencies when U.S dollar is strengthened, as it is priced in that currency.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals, but mostly upward movement. The gold proxy is currently trading at $118.42, up 0.20% from the open. Today’s predicted low is $118.42 (± 0.28) and the predicted high is $118.68 (± 0.28). The predicted close today is $118.49.  



Treasury yields are slipping after a brief hike today as investors pour over today’s release of housing data. Last week’s housing data was weaker-than-expected, and many are observing what appears to be a developing trend. This data may conflict with Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s description of recent weak economic data as “one-off”. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is currently down 0.13% at 2.16%. Bond prices and yields are typically inversely related to one another.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see continued volatility in our 10-day prediction window. Relative to current conditions, we see vector figures moving from +0.04% today to -0.19% in three trading sessions before another positive correction.  The ETF is currently priced at $127.51- up 0.16% from the open. The predicted close today is $126.72 with a low and high of $126.53 (± 0.40) and $127.95 (± 0.41), respectively.  



The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently up 0.55% at 10.92, and our 10-day prediction window shows strong negative signals. The predicted close today is 10.61 with a negative vector of -1.70%. Today’s predicted lows and highs are 10.32 (± 0.31) and 11.16 (± 0.34), respectively.




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