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Major U.S. indices ended 2020 in record territory as the S&P saw a 16% gain for the year while the Dow was up over 7%; the Nasdaq led indices with over 43% gain which marks its largest one-year gain in over 10 years. To start off 2021, however, markets dipped with all three major U.S. indices closing in the red. The rising rate of COVID cases in the U.S., and worldwide, along with the latest variant of the disease first reported in the U.K. making its way into the U.S. pressured U.S. benchmarks today. Several key U.S. economic reports are due this week along with last month’s FOMC minutes while next week earnings-season will kick off with major banks reporting on the 15th. Additional key events to watch out for include Georgia’s runoff election set to take place Tuesday and the vaccine rollout which is due to pick-up in the coming weeks and should be monitored alongside U.S. infection rates. Globally, Asian and European markets closed in the green as the latest manufacturing data returned better than expected. The SPY is retesting its recent highs and we continue seeing strong rotation from growth to value stocks. Until an additional breakout is maintained, our models are projecting SPY to trade in the range of $354-$380. The market could be prone to further corrections and the next level of support is set at $354. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:
ISM Manufacturing Index (December) – Tuesday
ADP Employment Report (December) – Wednesday
Markit Services PMI (December) – Wednesday
Factory Orders (November) – Wednesday
FOMC Meeting Minutes (December) – Wednesday
Weekly Jobless Claims (1/2) – Thursday
Trade Deficit (November) – Thursday
ISM Services Index (December) – Thursday
Nonfarm Payrolls (December) – Friday
Unemployment Rate (December) – Friday
Average Hourly Earnings (December) – Friday
Wholesale Inventories (November) – Friday
Consumer Credit (November) – Friday
For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, JD. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $47.35 per barrel, down 2.41% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $32.38 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 2.73% at $1946.70 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $182.33, at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.16% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is flat, at 0.923% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 1.660% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $22.77 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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