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Markets remain modestly higher today following several big-name earnings this week, include Twitter this morning and Microsoft yesterday. All eyes will be on Amazon’s Q3 report today which is due after the market closes, while next week’s earnings remain prominent but will share the spotlight with the second-to-last FOMC meeting of 2019. In other central bank news, European Central Bank officials met to discuss policy change today which will serve as ECB President Mario Draghi’s last meeting, with incumbent Christine Lagarde in attendance. Next week look for Google, AT&T, Apple, Mastercard, and Facebook corporate earnings. There is little evidence the market will retest its 200 days MA and we believe it is just a matter of time for the market to break through 52 weeks high. We will continue to follow the semiconductor sector as we approach a strong seasonal trend for the market to make new highs, looking to buy with the SPY near $294-$296 level. The market remains range-bound with the SPY overhead resistance near $302-$305 level. Further volatility is expected and we recommend readers maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Today’s key earnings came in the form of Twitter, Comcast, and 3M while aftermarket close we will see marquee reports from Visa, Intel, and Amazon. These companies represent 10% of the S&P and will surely dictate markets following their release. Twitter, released before market open, saw subscribers increase but missed their financial marks widely, causing share to plunge over 10%. Comcast beat earnings pushing shares higher while 3M missed its estimates causing shares, and the Dow, to lower. Tomorrow we will see Verizon earnings while next week look out for Alphabet Inc., Apple, Facebook, MasterCard, Berkshire Hathaway, Exxon, and many more. Over 150 companies have reported thus far for the S&P with 80% beating expectations, setting up for a successful Q3 earnings season. Economic reports have been light this week with a mixed durable goods report today and a consumer sentiment index for October due tomorrow.
Globally, Asian markets closed to mixed results while European markets were in the green. The European Central Bank held its policy update meeting in which no change was enacted but did serve as ECB President Draghi’s last meeting. Christine Lagarde, who also attended the meeting, is set to take over. The latest ECB meeting comes ahead of next week’s FOMC which will serve as the second to last of 2019. The last two meetings featured rate cuts and whether or not another cut will be instilled is still unknown. Recent political and global trade developments have certainly impacted markets and will likely be mentioned in the minutes, though the last FOMC featured Fed chair Powell denouncing most political factors as influencers on their decision, instead opting for the latest economic data and inflation levels as indicators.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.31% moves to +1.16% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On October 10th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Wal-Mart Stores (WMT). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.
Trade Breakdown
WMT entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $118.93 (± 0.36) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price of $120.12 in the second hour of trading the following trading day. The Stop Loss price was set at $117.74.
*Please note: At the time of publication we do own the featured symbol, BMY. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $56.21 per barrel, up 0.43% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows positive signals. The fund is trading at $11.75 at the time of publication, up 0.86% from the open. Vector figures show +0.99% today, which turns +2.23% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.63% at $1,505.10 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $141.6, up 1.07% at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.14% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note remains flat at 1.77% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 0.31% at 2.26% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.23% moves to +1.95% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 1.07% at $13.86 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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