Trading is light but picking up speed as investors look toward fresh retailer data this week

February 20, 2017
By Vlad Karpel

Stock futures are up Monday as investors look toward a data-heavy week from the retail sector. On top of economic reports, comments from the most recent FOMC meeting will be released this week as well.  

U.S stock exchanges are closed for President’s Day, and U.S stock futures closed trading at noon Eastern Time, reopening at 5 p.m Eastern.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.02% at 20,624.05. The Nasdaq-100 finished up 0.4% at 5,838.58 and the S&P 500 closed at 2,351.16- a gain of 0.2%.

Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows consistent gains relative to today’s conditions. Positive vector figures rise from 0.45% today toward 2% and above within the next ten trading sessions.  


Upcoming Events & Reports

On Tuesday, the Markit flash manufacturing PMI for February will be released at 9:45 Eastern Time. The February services PMI surveys will also be released.

At 10 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday, January data for existing home sales will be released.



March West Texas Intermediate Crude is continuing gains, despite growing concerns over increased rig counts and production coming from the U.S.. Last November, OPEC and other non-OPEC countries agreed on a global production cap plan, which has boosted per-barrel prices. The United States is not part of this deal, and has been enjoying the spike in prices while continuing to raise production levels. The cost of production is becoming cheaper for U.S drillers, and the output is keeping oil prices from soaring too high.  

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows signals of consistent gains in prices. Positive vector figures remain under 0.5% throughout the window, relative to today’s conditions.  The fund is currently trading at 11.39, down 0.18% from its open. Today’s prediction sees support at 11.36 (± 0.04) and resistance at 11.43 (± 0.04). The predicted close for today is 11.41.  



Gold prices closed 0.05% lower today at $1,238.50 a troy ounce. Ahead of economic data expected to be positive and following light but upward trading today, the non-fiat metal is trading mostly sideways.   

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows majority downward movement relative to today’s conditions. These negative vector values oscillate from around 0.5% to above 1% with some positive corrections. The gold proxy is currently trading at 117.68, down 0.34%. Today’s predicted low is 117.59 (± 0.36) and the predicted high is 117.81 (± 0.36). The predicted close today is 117.62.  



Bond markets are closed today in honor of President’s Day.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see consistent, building negative movement in our 10-day prediction window. Relative to today’s conditions, we see vector figures climbing from under 0.1% to above 0.5% within the next 10 days. The ETF is currently priced at $120.32, which is up 0.59% from the open. The predicted close today is 120.19 with a low and high of 119.87 (± 0.31) and 121.05 (± 0.32), respectively.  



The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently down 2.30% at 11.49 from the open today.  Relative to today’s conditions, the 10-day prediction window shows upward movement with some negative corrections. The predicted close today is 11.04. Today’s predicted lows and highs are 10.27 (± 0.18) and 11.57 (± 0.20), respectively.


Other news

Major retailers will be reporting tomorrow, the 22nd of February. Big names include Macy’s Inc (M), Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT), Lumber Liquidators Holding Inc. (LL), and Home Depot Inc. (HD). These reports will all occur ahead of the market open.

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