Trade Talks To Resume In D.C., Trump Threatens Further Tariffs

May 6, 2019
By Vlad Karpel

Major U.S. indices are trading lower today following news U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods could be increased to 25% by week’s end, renewing trade tension. Still, trade talks between the U.S. and China will proceed in D.C. this week. Other major news to monitor include Uber’s public market debut on Friday and the continuation of first-quarter corporate earnings, with several big name brands still to release reports. Disney, Electronic Arts, Lyft, Honda, and Viacom are due to report this week. Tyson and Sysco reported today before the market open while Occidental Petroleum and Hertz are due to report after market close. SPY support sits at $286 as the ticker remains on pace to retest 52 weeks high of $294, currently trading above its 50-day moving average. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:

Over the weekend, President Trump showed interest in increasing tariffs on Chinese imports from the current 10% to 25%. While some concern over how this would affect this week’s meetings between the two trade delegations, it appears China is still planning on coming to Washington to talk trade. The latest comments by Trump have reignited tension though it is unclear if actual trade talks will be impacted and if this has prolonged the supposed timetable for a formal deal. Asian markets felt the impact of Trump’s latest tweets, lowering by 5% thereafter. European markets also lowered today. Similar threats were lobbied by Trump ahead of Japan, Mexico, Canada, and Europe trade negotiations.

Corporate earnings remain in focus this week with several major players in key sectors still scheduled to report. Oil and energy corporate earnings this week will include Occidental Petroleum, Emerson Electric, Marathon Petroleum, Duke Energy, and Enbridge. One of the biggest reports this week will release on Wednesday with Disney earnings while other major brands scheduled to report are Anheuser-Busch, Electronic Arts, Lyft, Sprint, Roku, Vale, Honda, Marriott, Fox, and Samsung. Economic reports of significance this week feature consumer credit, trade deficit, producer index, consumer index, core CPI, and the Federal budget.

Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mostly negative signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.07% moves to -0.48% in five trading sessions. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,929.86. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 pm, CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  


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EVEN THOUGH there is BLOOD ON THE STREET  

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Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade

On April 25th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Constellation Brands Inc (STZ). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.

Trade Breakdown

STZ entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $210.14 (± 1.90) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price $212.24 in the first hour of trading that day. The Stop Loss price was set at $208.04.


Tuesday Morning Featured ETF

*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.

Our featured ETF for Tuesday is iPath S&P 500 VIX (VXX). VXX is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.

The ETF is trading at $27.29 at the time of publication, up 7.00% from the open with a +0.77% vector figure.

Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.


Oil

West Texas Intermediate for June delivery (CLM9) is priced at $62.64 per barrel, up 1.13% from the open, at the time of publication.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $12.02 at the time of publication, up 1.00% from the open. Vector figures show -0.52% today, which turns -5.46% in five trading sessions.  Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Gold

The price for June gold (GCM9) is up 0.09% at $1,282.50 at the time of publication.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mostly mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $120.97, at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.11% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Treasuries

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 0.97% at 2.50% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 0.85% at 2.91% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see positive signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.02% moves to +0.25% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up18.88% at $15.3 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $12.77 with a vector of -5.70%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Why I want you to sign-up for our Weekly Trader
EVEN THOUGH there is BLOOD ON THE STREET  

Dear Friend,

Yes, you are reading that right: today, of all days, I want you to sign up for our new Weekly Trader.

This may sound like an odd request from the Founder of Tradespoon during this bearish market. An annual membership to our Weekly Trader service gives you a full suite of expert picks generated by my AI-powered algorithms – making successful trading simple, repeatable, and profitable in good times and more importantly, during times of volatility.  

CLICK HERE TO PREPARE TO PROFIT WHILE THERE’S BLOOD ON THE STREET


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