We’re seeing the typical trends in pre-holiday trading today, as investors await the release of November FOMC minutes due at 2 p.m. Eastern Time. There is a broad expectation that this report will point to a likely short-term interest rate hike next month. In corporate news- we’re seeing sharp declines in both Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE) and its counterpart, HP Inc (HPQ). HPE dropped 8% after Tuesday news that its CEO Meg Whitman will be leaving the company. Its outlook for the first quarter of next year was not strong. HPQ dropped 7%, following a disappointing Tuesday earnings report.
At the time of publication, the DJIA is down 0.28%, or 67.62 points, at 23,523. The S&P 500 is trading at 2,597- down 0.09% from the open. The Nasdaq-100 is up 0.03% at 6,865.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows overall positive signals. Today’s negative vector figure of -0.08% moves to +0.07% within three trading sessions and rises from there. Today’s predicted support and resistance is 2,592.90 (± 3.05) and 2,600.19 (± 3.06), respectively. The predicted close today is 2,598.60. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade
On November 6, our ActiveInvestor service- included in our Tools and Premium membership plans- generated a Bullish recommendation for the PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL). ActiveInvestor is designed for swing-trading, and positions are typically held for 5-20 days.
PYPL hit its Entry 1 ($72.33, ± 0.33) price range on November 9 and moved through its Target of $79.95 on November 16. The Stop Loss was set at $68.71.
Our must-buy stock for Friday is D.H. Horton Inc. (DHI). DHI is continuing a steady upward trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of A, indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy relative to our entire data universe. Our 10-day prediction model shows vector figures climbing above +2.50% within the next trading session. Our benchmark for vector figures is +1.00%.
The stock is trading at $49.32 at the time of publication, down 0.06% from the open with a +1.48% vector figure.
Friday’s prediction shows an open price of $50.24, a low of $49.68 and a high of $51.22.
The predicted close for Friday is $50.33. Vector figures show +2.65% for Nov. 24, holding strong throughout the forecast. This is a good signal for trading opportunities, because the vectors are a primary factor in determining price movements for stocks and ETF.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relatively to average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
Crude prices are fluctuating today, after data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a less-than-expected drop in supplies. Market participants are also anticipating a November 30 OPEC meeting, which is expected to conclude with an extension past March 2018 of the global production cut deal. What is unknown, however, is the exact timeline of that extension and the particular terms of the agreement. If member countries fail to reach a consensus, this will impact prices negatively. U.S. crude producers, who are not part of the accord, will also try to exploit higher prices due to an OPEC deal, effectively keeping prices from rising further. West Texas Intermediate for January delivery is priced at $57.88 per barrel at the time of publication, up 1.41% from the open.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows strong negative signals. The fund is trading at $11.54 at the time of publication, up 1.23% from the open. Today’s prediction sees support at $11.22 (± 0.04) and resistance at $11.48 (± 0.04). The predicted close for today is $11.35. Vector figures show a flat +0.00% today, moving to -1.87% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for December gold is up 0.71% at $1,290.80 a troy ounce at the time of publication. The yellow metal saw an uptick today as the U.S. dollar strength pulled back ahead of today’s release of November Fed meeting minutes. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen on Tuesday had also indicated a more gradual pace of interest rate hikes. This also worked against the strength of the U.S. dollar, the currency in which gold is denominated. Gold prices and the U.S. dollar tend to move inversely to one another, as a weaker dollar makes gold more attractive to investors holding foreign currencies.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $122.58, up 0.88% at the time of publication. Today’s predicted low is $121.13 (± 0.26) and the predicted high is $122.38 (± 0.26). The predicted close today is $121.71. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Yields are pulling back today, as investors await the release of November Fed meeting minutes to gauge sentiment around future Fed interest rate hikes. Dovish remarks from Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen on Tuesday have pointed to a more gradual approach to raising interest rates. There was also an impact from a disappointing durable-goods orders report for the month of October. Looking into details of the report, however, showed more positive trends. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 0.79% at 2.33% at the time of publication. Bond prices tend to move inversely to yields.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see consistent negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.46% moves to -0.78% within the next three trading sessions. The ETF is priced at $126.90 at the time of publication- up 0.13% from the open. The predicted close today is $125.90 with a low and high of $125.69 (± 0.26) and $126.78 (± 0.26), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is down 0.10% to 9.72 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows overall positive signals. Reactions to Fed November minutes, and adjustments due to Thanksgiving and muted Friday trading will likely see a small spike in the VIX. The predicted close today is 10.67 with a positive vector of +2.57%. Today’s predicted lows and highs are 9.73 (± 0.18) and 11.84 (± 0.22), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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