Another week of earnings is upon us and with Google, Facebook, and Twitter all set to report this week, Hasbro Inc. and Halliburton already releasing lukewarm reports, I am looking at my seasonal charts for evidence of either a strong market rally or selloff to end April. Also on the docket are earnings from TD Ameritrade, Whirlpool, Caterpillar, Coca-Cola this week. By the looks of my seasonal charts, support levels for the SPDR S&P 500, which I use to gauge the market, don’t break in either April or May which can be promising. However, investors should monitor the support line in my seasonal charts to identify if the market is heading for a big selloff. Like I said, if we see the S&P break the support line of $267, which we are currently teetering on, a selloff could be ahead of us and thus today, and this week’s, activity is paramount to predicting where the market is going. Another line to closely watch will be the 10-year Treasury notes which have hovered near the 3% benchmark all morning long.
After rising to a four-year high this past Friday at 2.956%, yields continued to rise today. This, analysts predict, is a result of traders beginning to factor in a fourth interest rate hike in 2018. Whether inflation expectations or higher prices for materials that have recently caused yields to rise so sharply is anyone’s guess but reaching the 3% benchmark could be another signal of looming selloff. Still, my charts are supporting the notion that the path of least resistance is up.
Elsewhere, geopolitical tensions seem to cool as North Korean President Kim Jong Un said over the weekend that nuclear test sites have suspended testing of long-range missiles. Bitcoin continues to rally after a brutal first quarter while U.S. existing home-sales for March, as reported by the National Association of Realtors, rose 1.1% along with 5.8% rise in the median sale price.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows all positive signals. Today’s vector figure of 0.24% rises to 1.15% within one trading session. Today’s predicted support and resistance levels are 2,670.14 (±9..29) and 2,712.08 (± 9.43), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On April 19, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Halliburton Company (HAL). ActiveTrader, included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans, is designed for intraday trading.
HAL opened near the Entry 1 price range of $51.69 (± 0.39) at $51.23, moving through its Target Price of $52.21 within the first hour of trading, reaching $52.49. The Stop Loss was set at $51.17.
Our featured stock for Tuesday is Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK). BK is showing a confident uptrend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A)- indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe. Our 10-day prediction model shows positive vector figure reaching +1.00% in two trading session which then incrementally builds above +2.00% throughout the 10-day forecast. Our benchmark for vector figures is +1.00%.
*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
The stock is trading at $55.87 at the time of publication, up .81% from the open with a +0.52% vector figure.
Tuesday’s prediction shows an open price of $55.27, a low of $54.72 and a high of $57.03.
The predicted close for Tuesday is $56.19. Vector figures jump to +.90% on Tuesday and drive upward from there. This is a good signal for trading opportunities because we use vectors as a primary factor in determining price movements for stocks and ETF.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
When the market was down last week, see how we traded in volatile conditions and what you might expect in our next Live Trading Room. During recent volatility, we held Live Trading Room Session where our winning trades ranged 13% to over 52% ROI!
|Symbol||Net Gain %|
Our Live Trading Room is open every trading day from 9:15 am Eastern Time, but Live Trading Room Sessions are only available for Premium Members.
We wanted to share the recording with you so you can see the profits you might be missing- even during very volatile markets.
West Texas Intermediate for June delivery (CLM8) is priced at $68.03 per barrel at the time of publication, down .51% from the open. At one point the commodity was down to $67.45 per barrel, tracking on pace for the largest one day-decline of the month before the mid-noon correction. June Brent crude prices also faced a large drop of 79 cents early in the trading day before resettling near $74.08. Trump’s recent tweets have been aimed at the higher prices of oil which is something to monitor in the coming weeks.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $13.825 at the time of publication, up .55% from the open. Tomorrow’s prediction sees support at $13.32 and resistance at $13.52.Vector figures show +0.54% today, which stay negative for the next four trading sessions before reversing to positive territory. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for June gold (GCM8) is down 0.98% at $1,325.40 at the time of publication. For the first time in three weeks, gold futures reported a loss last week. The commodity could be feeling pressure from earnings and boosting dollar as the safe haven commodity falls out of favor for the time being. Treasury yields will also be of importance to monitor as rising yields can drive gold lower.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows all positive signals. The gold proxy is trading at $125.46, down 0.92% at the time of publication. Tomorrow’s predicted low is $127.26 and the predicted high is $127.58. The predicted close is $127.56. Vector signals show +0.30% for today, fluctuating above +1.00% in two trading sessions and back down toward the end of the forecast. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
All yields are on the march higher today, responding to the expectation of a rise in inflation and the likelihood of four-not three- interest rate hikes. Investors should continue monitoring the shrinking gap between short and long-term treasury rates and its effects throughout the market. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note rose to 2.47%, about 1.8% from the open, at the time of publication. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 0.73% at 2.98% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is slightly up from the open at 3.152% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.07% moves to +0.4 0% within three trading sessions. The ETF is priced at $118.34 at the time of publication, down 0.1%. The predicted low and high tomorrow are $117.83 and $118.68, respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 3.55% at 16.28 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows overall negative signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is 15.57 with a vector of -4.55%. The predicted lows and highs for tomorrow are 15.22 and 17.13, respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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