Last week, the S&P neared record-highs behind continued support from strong earnings, reports of lawmakers working on additional virus-relief packages, and a recorded slowdown of reported COVID cases. Today, the Nasdaq was able to book a record close behind a strong tech-rally while the S&P also closed in the green, nearing its own record high. U.S. Home-Builders data released today showed an uptick in activity while Wednesday will feature last month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes. Retail earnings take center stage this week with Home Depot, Target, Walmart, and additional major-brand retailers set to release. Globally, European markets finished in the green while Asian markets, apart from Japan, closed impressively higher. A meeting between China and the U.S. to assess their phase-one trade agreement was also pushed back. Overall, we are seeing strong rotation into the value stocks (industrial, metals, energy, and banks) and away from growth stocks. Based on our models, we are projecting the SPY to trade between $310-$340, marking $310 as our “worst-case” scenario. As long as the market trades above the $323 level for the SPY, Market Commentary readers can consider adding to their positions using market pullbacks. Short-term traders could consider adding to positions when SPY nears $310 and we will look to be buyers into any short-term corrections. We will continue monitoring the VIX as the market can overshoot support and resistance levels when VIX is trading near $30 level, and we encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:
For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term positive outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Our featured symbol for Tuesday is D.R. Horton (DHI). DHI is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for current-day predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $73.33 with a vector of +0.07% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does not have a position in the featured symbol, DHI. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $42.60 per barrel, up 0.19% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $29.82 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 1.13% at $1,927.00 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $179.94, at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.74% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 0.559% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up, at 1.234% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $22.28 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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