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Midway through the shortened trade week, U.S. stocks closed lower as additional earnings and the minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee were released. While the Dow, which finished in record territory Tuesday, ended up slightly higher today, both the S&P and Nasdaq closed in the red. The Fed released minutes from their January meeting today; meeting minutes highlighted inflation concerns alongside industrial and retail upticks. Likewise, the January Retail report showed U.S. sales rose by 5.3%, significantly topping estimates. Key earnings this week include Shopify and Hilton Hotels, which reported before the market open today, as well as Baidu, Walmart, Applied Materials, and Roku. As earning season winds down focus returns to stimulus talks in Congress and the overall COVID rate as well as vaccine distribution. Next week, look out for earnings from Square, Home Depot, Nvidia, Salesforce, Moderna, and DraftKings as well as January, inflation, consumer spending, and personal income reports. Globally, Asian markets closed with mixed results while European markets were in the red. We continue to see a strong rotation from growth to value stocks and until an additional breakout is maintained, our models are projecting SPY to trade in the range of $364-$390. It is our opinion that the market could be prone to further corrections and the next level of support is set at the 50-day moving average, $364-$370. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, MS. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $58.39 per barrel, up 0.05% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows positive signals. The fund is trading at $38.28 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.36% at $1844.20 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $172.71 at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.13% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is flat, at 1.168% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 1.956% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $21.99 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session
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