In anticipation of this week’s inflation statistics and corporate earnings reports, stocks surged to start Monday. Stocks saw a bit of pullback on Monday, reducing their prior rally from just Friday at the commencement of another trading week. All eyes this week will be on U.S. inflation data and fourth-quarter earnings season, officially kicking off with major banks later in the week. Don’t miss out on the key earnings results this week from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), and BlackRock (BLK). All five will announce their figures by Friday. Additionally, Treasury debt prices soar, causing yields to dip; oil prices are also moving higher following China’s easing of border and travel policy due to COVID.
Over the course of the next few days, Markets will gain further insight into current inflation rates and economic circumstances from a series of reports. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s address on Tuesday and Thursday’s Consumer Price Index release will help to paint an even more vivid picture for stock investors. These figures offer valuable information regarding consumer-level inflation trends that often cause stocks to shift in response.
Right now the $VIX is trading near $22, so we’re closely monitoring overhead resistance levels of the SPY which are currently at $390 and then again at $402. If prices drop, support for the SPY should kick in around both $380 and then a second time at about $370. The $JPM, $TSM, and $DAL earnings this week – as well as CPI data – can influence the next move in the market. We expect the market to continue to make new lows for the next 2-8 weeks. We would be BEARISH ON THE MARKET at this time and encourage subscribers to hedge their positions. Market commentary readers should maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
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West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $74.87 per barrel, up 1.49%, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $67.64 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.35% at $1876.30 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $171.06 at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.45% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down at 3.539% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down at 3.659% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $22.14 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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