Markets Tepid With Unsure Footing on Trade Deal and Hong Kong Bill

November 21, 2019
By Vlad Karpel

Indices are trading lower at the outset today following weaker than expected labor market data and some unsure footing in the China/U.S trade deal. The U.S. Congress passed a bill in support of protests in Hong Kong, a move that was expected to have direct repercussions in the China/U.S. trade deal. A Chinese invitation to U.S. delegates is still extended and in-person talks are likely to go forward. Protests in Hong Kong were started originally to counter a controversial law that would allow the Chinese government to extradite and remove Hong Kong citizens under certain circumstances. The U.S. lands firmly on the side of Hong Kong and aid to those protesters is perceived as meddling in Chinese domestic affairs on the other side. Developments in Hong Kong may be intrinsically tied to U.S./China negotiations going forward, but China is decidedly vocalizing optimism amidst the contentious situation. 

Claims for unemployment benefits have arrived at higher than expected for the second week in a row, issuing some worries to investors looking at a weak labor market. Because the consumer and household health is seen as a bulwark for U.S. economic vitality, these numbers are important amidst other risks like the impact of a potential trade war. 

SPY overhead resistance remains $310 and we will look to buy when the SPY is near $297 level. There is little evidence we will retest 200 days MA, and we expect further volatility as well as shallow pullbacks. We encourage Market Commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:

Macy’s (M) saw a gap down today, dropping 3% at one point after third-quarter sales estimates were missed and guidance was lowered for the year. 

A big M&A story today reports that Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) may be buying TD Ameritrade (AMTD) and the deal may be announced as early as today. Both stocks are surging with SCHW up 8% and AMTD up 19% at the time of publication. Some reports contain a $26 billion figure for the purchase. 

Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term positive outlook. Today’s vector figure of -0.07% moves to +0.81% in four trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session. 


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Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade

On November 11th, our WeeklyTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Mastercard (MA). WeeklyTrader is included in Elite Trading Circle or available as a standalone subscription. This service provides 3 bullish and 3 bearish stock & single option signals for 2-5 day trades. 

Trade Breakdown

MA entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $274.89 (± 1.20) in its first hour of trading on 11/11 and passed through its Target price of $280.39 in the first hour of trading on Friday. 11/15/19. The Stop Loss price was set at $269.39. Every stock recommendation includes a single option strategy based on the stock price parameters. 


Friday Morning Featured Symbol

*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel has a position in the featured symbol, CTXS. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.

Our featured symbol for Friday is Citrix Systems Inc. (CTXS). CTXS is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A) indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for current-day predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.  

The stock is trading at $113.3 at the time of publication, with a +0.22% vector figure.

Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.


Oil

West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $58.16 per barrel, up 2.03% from the open, at the time of publication.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows negative signals. The fund is trading at $12.21 at the time of publication, up 2.61% from the open. Vector figures show +0.29% today, which turns to -0.74% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Gold

The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 0.43% at $1,467.90 at the time of publication. Gold is weakening following news of optimistic sentiments and a path to a phase-one China/U.S. trade deal, even considering U.S. legislation backing Hong Kong protests. Many strategists are looking at key levels between $1,450 and $1,470 to hold, otherwise, a dip below that would signal a bearish tilt. 

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows overall negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $137.99, down 0.62% at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.40% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Treasuries

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 1.18% at 1.77% at the time of publication.  The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 1.09% at 2.24% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see overall negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.05% moves to -1.11% in four sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 2.90% at $13.15 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows strong negative signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Want a more manageable portfolio with fewer trades and more profits

How often do you sign up for an investment advisory and find dozens, or hundreds, of open trades in their portfolio?

It’s almost as though the guru is trying to cover all his bases by recommending every potential stock that could go up.

As an investor, it’s overwhelming: what do you focus on?

With Vlad’s system, you never have to worry about more than a handful of stocks at one time. It’s a focused approach to trading, and that means you can spend more of your brain energy on other activities without sacrificing profitability.

And there’s a unique advantage Vlad’s system has that is a must-have in this day and age…

That winning percentage doesn’t budge…
even during volatile times

CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE


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