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U.S. Markets impressively rose on the first trading day of October as optimism regarding President Trump’s recovery, as well as overall COVID response, improved with several treatments and vaccines on the horizon. Similarly, additional progress on the latest fiscal bill is also supporting markets today with both President Trump and congressional members from both parties signaling the importance of another round of fiscal stimulus. Likewise, the latest economic data provided an uptick on sentiment as both industrial activity and employment saw an increase in their latest reports. Key reports scheduled to release this week include August Trader Deficit, Job Openings, and Consumer Credit as well as minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. We will continue monitoring VIX levels as the market can overshoot support and resistance levels when VIX is trading near $30 level. Our latest models are projecting the SPY to trade between $318-$360 and we will look to be buyers into any short-term corrections. With the SPY having already broken through its overhead resistance at $340, short-term traders could consider adding to positions when SPY is near $332. As always, we encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:
For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term positive outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Our featured symbol for Tuesday is Synchrony Financial (SYF). SYF is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.
The stock is trading at $27.46 with a vector of +0.19% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, SYF. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $39.35 per barrel, up 6.21% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $28.35 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.52% at $1,917.60 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $174.94, at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.32% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 0.772% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 1.581% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $26.19 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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