U.S. Benchmarks finished lowered Wednesday as inflation concerns intensify in prominence, only to snap their three-day losing streak to book impressive gains. Nasdaq led the pack with a 236 point rise while the S&P finished up 1%, Dow up 0.5%. The steady wave of strong corporate earnings as well as the latest round of economic data, which returned better than expected, supported markets today. Yesterday’s FOMC minutes release highlighted inflation concerns the Fed maintained while also stressing the importance of patience in regard to monetary policy updates. Although this worried investors, today’s round of upbeat economic reports helped alleviate the stress. Unemployment data helped as the latest report showed a low not seen during the pandemic with only 440,000 jobless claims. Additional April reports also highlighted similar gains in the previous month as the U.S. and World economy continue to return to pre-pandemic levels of economic activity. Elsewhere, Bitcoin and similar cryptocurrencies saw harsh losses mid-week but have since rebound, though not to previous highs. Globally, Asian markets closed to mixed results while European markets traded impressively higher. At this point, the top is set at $425 and we encourage users to consider selling into market rebounds. The $SPY broke below key mid-term support at $410. QQQ has been trading below the 50-day moving average for a few sessions and the market is getting close to an oversold level. The next key support level is near $400, 60-days moving average. Our models are projecting the $SPY to trade in the range of $397-$410 for the next 6 weeks, following the latest rebound and slowing momentum behind treasury and currency markets. The $SPY has reached our target of $415-$425 based on the 6-month forecast from our Stock Forecast Toolbox and we encourage readers to raise cash at this point. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:
For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Our featured symbol for Friday is CVS Corp. (CVS). CVS is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.
The stock is trading at $89.07 with a vector of +0.75% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, CVS. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $61.95 per barrel, down 2.23% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows positive signals. The fund is trading at $44.66 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 0.22% at $1877.40 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $167.27 at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.05% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down, at 1.624% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 2.334% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $27.59 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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