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Although fighting continued overseas, U.S. indices recorded sharp gains as oil prices retreated following an extended rise in oil futures and prices. A meeting between Ukrainian and Russian diplomats is set to take place once more while just yesterday the U.S. banned Russian oil. Positive U.S. labor data also provided some support today as the Dow and S&P finished with over 2% gained while the Nasdaq was up 3.5%. This comes after steep losses in the previous several sessions as global tensions continue to rise with the situation in Ukraine ongoing. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said he is no longer pursuing NATO membership, one of Russia’s stated reasons for its invasion. According to reports, Zelensky is ready to pursue a negotiated settlement to the hostilities triggered by Russia’s unprovoked assault on Ukraine. Another support for U.S. markets was U.S. Congress introducing a new bill that would extend the federal government’s funding through the remainder of the fiscal year, as well as provide aid to Ukraine. Additional COVID-19 relief was abruptly terminated right before the bill was passed.
Geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the inflation data this week can impact the next move in the market. At the mid-week point, the $VIX is trading lower, near the 32 level. We are watching the vital support levels in the SPY, which are presently at $420 and then $400. The $SPY Overhead resistance is at $445 and we expect the market to pull back further in the next two weeks. Globally, Asian markets closed in the red while European markets finished higher, apart from Russia. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The symbol is trading at $23.8 with a vector of +0.99% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, SLV. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $109.58 per barrel, down 11.41% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $82.37 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 1.79% at $2001.8 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $186.41 at the time of publication. Vector signals show +1.13% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 1.885% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up, at 2.266% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $36.45 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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