Markets Parsing China-U.S. Trade Deal, Boeing Boosts Industrial Average

November 18, 2019
By Vlad Karpel

Indices are seeing mixed trading today as a China trade deal agreement hits a stall. A beleaguered Boeing Co. (BA) is seeing positive trading today after SunExpress ordered 10 737 Max8 aircraft, amounting to $1.2 billion. The HP/Xerox merger plan is in a stall today after Xerox’s $33.5 billion offer was rejected by Hewet Packard- saying the deal was undervalued but is still open to other options.  Shares of T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) traded 0.6% lower today after the company announced its current CEO John Legere will be replaced by Mike Sievert, the current Chief Operating Officer. The change will occur after May 1, 2020. 

SPY overhead resistance remains $310 and we will look to buy when the SPY is near $297 level. There is little evidence we will retest 200 days MA, and we expect further volatility as well as shallow pullbacks. We encourage Market Commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:

Although markets are acutely sensitive to these headlines around the phase-one deal, it is apparent that this situation is still volatile and unpredictable. Increased market momentum in a bullish trend may contribute to the assumed bargaining power of the U.S. administration.  While Huawei remains on a federal restriction list, a 90-day extension of the license allowing U.S. companies to conduct business with the Chinese telecom giant is expected to be approved by the Trump administration. The status of the company is one of many items of leverage in a complex trade dispute. 

On the other end- China’s central bank has just announced it is lowering the interest rate on its regular reverse purchase open market operations. This would be a first in over 4 years since October 2015. This is largely an effort to revitalize confident sentiments in the market and help with slowing growth rates. 

Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a mixed outlook. Today’s vector figure of -0.03% moves to +0.35% in six trading sessions.  This is considered a “sideways” projection and does not display strong directional momentum. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  


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Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade

On November 4th, our MonthlyTrader service produced a bearish recommendation for Western Digital (WDC). MonthlyTrader is included in Tools, Premium or available as a single subscription and is designed for 5-20 day trades. 

Trade Breakdown

WDC entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $53.83 (± 0.55) in its first hour of trading on 11/06 and passed through its Target price of $51.14 in the first hour of trading the following Monday. 11/11/19. The Stop Loss price was set at $56.52.


Tuesday Morning Featured Symbol

*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel has a position in the featured symbol, ACN. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.

Our featured symbol for Tuesday is Accenture Plc. (ACN). ACN is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A) indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for current-day predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.  

The stock is trading at $198.87 at the time of publication, up 1.05% from the open with a +0.47% vector figure.

Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.


Oil

West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $56.78 per barrel, down 1.61% from the open, at the time of publication.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows negative signals. The fund is trading at $11.85 at the time of publication, down 1.90% from the open. Vector figures show +0.01% today, which turns -1.62% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Gold

The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.26% at $1,472.30 at the time of publication. Gold prices have been sensitive to any commentary coming out of the U.S./China trade deal. Gold was under pressure after reports of phone conversations being “constructive” between the two parties to the negotiations, but weakening indices, treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar helped the safe-haven metal regain its support. 

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $138.71, up 0.36% at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.56% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Treasuries

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 1.41% at 1.81% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 0.66% at 2.29% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see strong negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.21% moves to -1.18% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 4.40% at $12.58 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


I put my money where my mouth is!

Listen, I’ve been around long enough to have been exposed to every “earth-changing” investment strategy Wall Street has ever dreamed up.

I’m telling you Artificial Intelligence is not just another gimmick for Wall Street to market itself.

I don’t like the way Wall Street’s Robo advisors cut you out of the decision process, but I am personally relying upon the very latest, cutting-edge AI to identify money-making opportunities.

YES!  I’m investing my own money in each and every stock as my AI platform identifies.

I racked up huge gains on my own money by relying on my mind-boggling high-tech AI platform to accurately forecast everything I needed to know about the stocks in my portfolio.

And remember we’re not talking about day-trading here. I already have a 94% success rate and almost a 5% return per trade. With 59 winners out of 63 trades in the last 13 months, I have a cumulative return of 295 %!

Twice a month, you’ll get a complete rundown on what I’ve done with my money that week, what you should do now as well as how our past picks are doing and when to sell them.

CLICK HERE FOR THE $97 SUPER SALE


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