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Stocks finished mixed on Monday as the Ukraine-Russia talks concluded without an agreement. Global markets were once again unsettled as talks to establish a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine came to an end without one being reached, although some progress was noted. The Central Bank of Russia raised its key interest rate to 20% from 9.5%, and stock market trading was halted. Russian troops continued to face tenacious opposition from the Ukrainians, while casualties continue to be reported from both sides. The United States, the European Union, and their North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies continued to impose economic sanctions on Russia. The weekend saw the United States and its allies come together to agree to block select Russian banks from the worldwide financial network through the SWIFT interbank messaging system. Oil prices continue to rise globally while gold is also seeing its value grow. Globally, Asian markets finished to mixed results while European markets closed in the red.
On Wednesday, several key U.S. economic reports are due to release including the February ADP employment report and the latest Beige Book. Thursday and Friday are due to release key labor reports while earnings continue to wind down. Retail earnings this week include Target and DollarTree as well as marquee reports from Broadcom and Salesforce. The $VIX, or volatility index, is trading higher at around $30. Geopolitical risks in Ukraine and this week’s earnings might have an impact on the market’s next move. We’re keeping an eye on important support levels in the SPY, which are currently at $420 and then $400. The overhead resistance for the SPY is $460 and we expect the market to pull back further and restart the rebound in the next 1-2 months. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The symbol is trading at $433.8with a vector of -0.32% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, LMT. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $95.82 per barrel, up 4.62% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $64.28 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 1.22% at $1910.60 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $173.08 at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.25% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 1.997% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up, at 2.299% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $31.02 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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