Markets Lower Behind U.S.-China Tension, Key Economic Data Releasing This Week 

August 12, 2019
By Vlad Karpel

Global concerns continue to weigh on stocks as all three major U.S. indices are in the red today. U.S.-China trade tensions remain prominent following last week’s yuan manipulation which saw the Chinese currency weaken, just barely trading above the seven per dollar level. Additional tariffs and negotiations will resume in September. This week will feature a number of prominent U.S. economic reports which could guide markets, including July Federal Budget, Core CPI, Retail Sales, and August Consumer Sentiment Index. Earnings season is near its end with over 90% of S&P companies having already reported. This week look for Walmart, Nvidia, Applied Materials, and Cisco to report corporate earnings. Volatility remains while several sectors, such as small caps and energy, continue to struggle. Market could overshoot to 50-days MA on SPY which would be around $293-$294 level. SPY short term support sits at $277-$280. Taking this into consideration, we will sell when the market is near $290 and look to buy near $278 for the SPY. During this period of volatility, Market Commentary readers are urged to have clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:

Major market focus turned to equity markets last week with U.S.-China trade tensions heating up as the U.S. announced additional tariffs that will kick in on September 1st while China responded by lowering the yuan. This move caused U.S. Treasury yields to approach historic lows before receiving slight rebounds only to further lower at the start of this week. Trade tensions have also impacted global yields, along with Brexit uncertainty, which has also unanimously lowered. U.S. index futures are also trading lower today while Asian and European markets closed to mixed results. Continue monitoring U.S.-China relations as we near the September deadline for further tariffs as well as the next set of negotiations between two of the world’s top economies. 

With earnings significantly slowing down, monthly economic reports will now take center stage with several notable reports releasing this week. July’s CPI inflation data is due to be released tomorrow with current estimates having CPI up 0/2% from June, or 2.1% from last year. Retail sales will be out Thursday and are also forecasted to be up for the month, marking six out of the seven months of 2019 sales were up. This falls in line with recent earnings data which has, for the most part, returned in the green. Also, look out for Consumer Price Index on Tuesday, Q2 productivity on Thursday, and July housing starts and building permits on Friday. Earnings to monitor this week include Tilray on Tuesday, Macy’s and Cisco Systems on Wednesday, Alibaba and Walmart on Thursday. 

Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.27% moves to -0.66% in five trading sessions. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,926.72. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6pm, CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  


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How often do you sign up for an investment advisory and find dozens, or hundreds, of open trades in their portfolio?

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Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade

On August 1st, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Entergy Corp (ETF). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.

Trade Breakdown

ETR entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $105.62 (± 0.23) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price $106.68 in the second hour of trading that day. The Stop Loss price was set at $104.56


Tuesday Morning Featured Symbol

*Please note: At the time of publication we do not own the featured symbol, NWSA. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.

Our featured symbol for Tuesday is News Corporation (NWSA). NWSA is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A) indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.  

The stock is trading at $14.1 at the time of publication, up 8.21% from the open with a +1.42% vector.

Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.


Oil

West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $54.64 per barrel, up 0.28% from the open, at the time of publication.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows negative signals. The fund is trading at $11.3 at the time of publication, up 0.18% from the open. Vector figures show -0.34% today, which turns -1.55% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Gold

The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.57% at $1,517.30 at the time of publication.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. The gold proxy is trading at $141.98, up 0.51% at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.80% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Treasuries

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 4.55% at 1.67% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 4.03% at 2.17% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see positive signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.40% moves to +2.67% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 8.12% at $19.43 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $19.39 with a vector of +6.85%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Want a more manageable portfolio with fewer trades and more profits

How often do you sign up for an investment advisory and find dozens, or hundreds, of open trades in their portfolio?

It’s almost as though the guru is trying to cover all his bases by recommending every potential stock that could go up.

As an investor, it’s overwhelming: what do you focus on?

With Vlad’s system, you never have to worry about more than a handful of stocks at one time. It’s a focused approach to trading, and that means you can spend more of your brain energy on other activities without sacrificing profitability.

And there’s a unique advantage Vlad’s system has that is a must-have in this day and age…

That winning percentage doesn’t budge…
even during volatile times

CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE


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