The main focus for today will be a 2 p.m. Eastern release of minutes from the Fed’s September meeting. Expectations still hold that the Fed will offer guidance pointing to a late 2017 interest rate hike. Because this is the only significant event for today, focus is on these minutes, but this won’t be a market-moving event as most are not expecting any surprises. We’re getting into an earnings season and expectations are looking quite positive. Although we’ve seen a bull market sustain itself and push indices to record levels, we may see even more of an uptrend with a strong earnings season. BlackRock Inc. (BLK) and Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) both saw gains today after posting better-than-expected results.
At the time of publication, the DJIA is up 0.08%, or 17.14 points, at 22,848. The S&P 500 is trading at 2,552- up 0.05% from the open. The Nasdaq-100 is up 0.07% at 6,592.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows rising positive signals. Today’s positive vector figure of +0.23% moves to +0.67% in three trading sessions. Today’s predicted support and resistance is 2,543.69 (± 2.44) and 2,567.06 (± 2.47), respectively. The predicted close today is 2,563.39. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade
On October 5, our ActiveTrader service- included in all of our membership plans- generated a Bullish recommendation for the iShares Dow Jones Home Construction ETF (ITB).
Within the first hour of trading, ITB passed between the Entry 1 ($37.07, ± 0.10) and Entry 2 ($36.88, ± 0.10) price range. Within the next two hours of trading, the ETF reached its Target of $37.44. The Stop Loss was set at $36.70.
Our must-buy stock for Thursday is Apple Inc. (AAPL). Apple is generating strong positive vector signals in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. Our 10-day prediction model shows vector figures building from +1.36% to above +3.10% within the next trading session.
The stock is trading at $156.78 at the time of publication, up 0.56% from the open with a +1.36% vector figure.
Thursday’s prediction shows an open price of $160.09, a low of $159.07 and a high of $163.60.
The predicted close for Thursday is $161.65. Vector figures show +3.10% for tomorrow, which oscillate around +3% for the remainder of the forecast.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relatively to average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
Crude oil prices are fluctuating today, attempting to continue gains as market participants digest the results of an OPEC data release. Although demand was projected to rise, it appears that September output levels from member countries climbed. To be exact, OPEC puts the barrels-per-day increase for member countries at around 90,000 for the month of September. Forecasted rises in crude demand, as well as a Saudi pledge to cut November exports by 7% worked to counteract this data. West Texas Intermediate for November delivery is priced at $51.04 per barrel at the time of publication, up 0.24% from the open.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows rising negative signals. The fund is trading at $10.34 at the time of publication, which is up 0.58% from the open. Today’s prediction sees support at $10.04 (± 0.05) and resistance at $10.29 (± 0.05). The predicted close for today is $10.15. Vector figures show -0.57% today, moving to -1.88% within the next trading session. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for December gold is down 0.42% at $1,288.40 a troy ounce at the time of publication. Today’s release of minutes from the Fed’s September FOMC meeting is halting a streak of gains in the non-fiat metal. Although it is widely expected that a rate hike is impending, the tone and commentary from today’s minutes will allow investors to gauge the timeline to that hike. Fed opinion around inflation and wage growth tends to be intrinsically tied to the strength of the U.S. dollar, which moves inversely to gold prices.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows rising positive signals. The gold proxy is trading at $122.24, down 0.13% at the time of publication. Today’s predicted low is $122.39 (± 0.22) and the predicted high is $123.06 (± 0.22). The predicted close today is $122.66. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Just ahead of today’s release of minutes from the Fed’s September FOMC meeting, yields are seeing pressure as Treasury prices move higher. Although most expect a rate hike in December, today’s minutes may offer more clues around Fed thinking on inflation and economic vitality. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 0.69% at 2.34% at the time of publication. Bond prices tend to move inversely to yields.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see consistent negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.09% moves to -0.49% within three trading sessions. The ETF is priced at $124.43 at the time of publication- up 0.20% from the open. The predicted close today is $124.26 with a low and high of $123.78 (± 0.18) and $124.55 (± 0.18), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is down 0.40% to 10.04 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows overall positive signals. With earnings season kicking off, we can expect to see some upticks in volatility in the coming weeks. The predicted close today is 10.14 with a weak negative vector of -0.04%. Today’s predicted lows and highs are 9.86 (± 0.18) and 10.73 (± 0.19), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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