Markets Edge Higher Ahead of Google Earnings and State of the Union

February 4, 2019
By Vlad Karpel

U.S. indices are modestly up today with the Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow Jones on track to record slight gains today. Sentiment from the U.S.-China trade talks that took place in D.C. last week is upbeat but no deal was brokered. Google will report earnings after market close today and major earnings continue this week with Disney and Toyota tomorrow, General Motors on Wednesday, and Philip Morris and Marathon Petroleum on Thursday. The market continues to rebound from the December lows with strong earnings and easing global tensions but could still revert to $260-264 support level for SPY in the coming weeks. We believe the market could retest December lows in summer of 2019 and we encourage our members to buy the selloffs and avoid chasing the market. Based off most indicators, the market is overbought. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:

Disney and Google are trading to mixed results ahead of their fourth-quarter earnings reports, with Google-parent Alphabet Inc. currently up 1.2%. Sysco reported before market open and topped expectations, helping shares rise 5%.  Other big names scheduled to release also include Electronic Arts, Metlife, Humana, Prudential, Yum! Brands, Tyson Foods, and Twitter. Over 60% of S&P companies have reported earnings and most have topped or met expectations. A small number of economic reports that were delayed by the partial government shutdown are scheduled to release today, durable goods and factory orders for the month of November are among them.

Still, most economic reports that have been delayed by the government shutdown have yet to release. Reporting for this week, though light, remains intact with jobless claims and consumer credit on Thursday. Both Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Vice Chair Randal Quarles are scheduled to speak on Thursday while the delayed State of the Union address will take place on Tuesday. President Trump will speak to Congress and the nation and although the partial government shutdown was able to come to an end, issues regarding border wall and funding remain. The temporary deal to reopen the government will expire on February 15th. Globally, Asian markets closed to mixed results while European markets traded mostly lower.

Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Today’s vector figure of -0.23% moves to -1.71% in five trading sessions. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,681.24. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  


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Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade

On February 1st, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for NetApp, Inc. (NTAP). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.

Trade Breakdown

NTAP opened in its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $63.77 (± 0.43) and passed through its Target price $64.41 in the first hour of trading, reaching a high of $67.06. The Stop Loss price was set at $63.13.


Tuesday Morning Featured Stock

Our featured stock for Tuesday is American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL). AAL is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.  

*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.

The stock is trading at $36.72 at the time of publication, up 1.6852% from the open with a +1.48% vector figure.

Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.


Oil

West Texas Intermediate for March delivery (CLH9) is priced at $54.50 per barrel, down 1.38% from the open, at the time of publication. Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows positive signals. The fund is trading at $11.45 at the time of publication, down 1.55% from the open. Vector figures show +0.84% today, which turns +4.48% in five trading sessions.  Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Gold

The price for April gold (GCJ9) is down 0.30% at $1,318.10 at the time of publication. Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows all positive signals. The gold proxy is trading at $124.19, down 0.25% at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.31% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session. 

Treasuries

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 1.33% at 2.72% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 1.04% at 3.06% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see positive signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.18% moves to +1.04% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 2.48% at $15.74 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $17.22 with a vector of +7.98%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


URGENT: This Limited-Time Offer Expires at Midnight 

TODAY ONLY – If you sign up for the Tools Membership, we will automatically upgrade your account to our Premium Membership which includes access to our entire suite of trading tools as well as our Premium Member Picks, SMS Alerts, and Live Trading Room!

CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE!


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