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Major U.S. indices are seeing little changes today as investors are contemplating the rollout of a tax reform bill in Washington, with little significant news today to move markets. U.S. President Donald Trump is continuing his diplomatic tour of Asia, which is bringing North Korea tensions back into focus. We’re seeing cooled down rhetoric and a return to diplomatic pushes to resolve the conflict.
For the time being, we’re in wait-and-see mode until there is significant news on tax reform. We’ll be seeing heated debates in Washington over this bill, and investors will have to wait until the dust settles to gauge any concrete details around timelines to implementation and specific policies.
At the time of publication, the DJIA is up 0.02%, or 3.78 points, at 23,560. The S&P 500 is trading at 2,592- up 0.06% from the open. The Nasdaq-100 is up 0.11% at 6,775.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows consistent positive signals. Today’s positive vector figure of +0.07% moves to +0.33% within three trading sessions. Today’s predicted support and resistance is 2,586.66 (± 2.27) and 2,593.71 (± 2.28), respectively. The predicted close today is 2,590.98. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade
On November 6, our ActiveTrader service- included in all of our membership plans- generated a Bullish recommendation for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH).
Within the two hours of trading, SMH hit its Entry 1 ($102.94, ± 0.29) price range and moved to reach its Target of $103.97 within the next two hours of the trading session. The Stop Loss was set at $101.91.
Our must-buy stock for Thursday is Apple Inc. (AAPL). AAPL is incrementally building positive signals in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of A, indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy relative to our entire data universe. Our 10-day prediction model shows vector figures climbing above +1.50% within the next trading session. Our benchmark for vector figures is +1.00%.
The stock is trading at $175.58 at the time of publication, up 0.44% from the open with a +0.99% vector figure.
Thursday’s prediction shows an open price of $176.17, a low of $176.09 and a high of $179.11.
The predicted close for Thursday is $176.72. Vector figures show +1.51% for tomorrow, which continues to build up incrementally in the following trading sessions.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relatively to average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
Crude oil prices took a hit today as U.S. domestic crude supply data showed a suprising rise. Declining U.S. inventories, optimistic OPEC commentary and a government shake up in Saudi Arabia had contributed to gains recently. West Texas Intermediate for November delivery is priced at $57.27 per barrel at the time of publication, up 0.86% from the open.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows consistent positive signals. The fund is trading at $11.61 at the time of publication, which is up 1.05% from the open. Today’s prediction sees support at $11.48 (± 0.05) and resistance at $11.67 (± 0.05). The predicted close for today is $11.55. Vector figures show +0.60% today, moving to +1.15% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for December gold is up 0.82% at $1,286.30 a troy ounce at the time of publication. Gold futures are getting a bump today due to tepid trading in equities and a slight dip in the U.S. dollar. There is also some degree of market uncertainty factoring in, considering President Trump’s Asia visit and the shake up in Saudi Arabia.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows overall positive signals. The gold proxy is trading at $122.09, up 0.73% at the time of publication. Today’s predicted low is $120.94 (± 0.25) and the predicted high is $121.90 (± 0.25). The predicted close today is $121.02. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Yields are continuing to an unchanging trend as investors focus in on debates around the tax reform bill. There are concerns from market participants that the tax cuts will deepen the budget deficit, subsequently increasing the rate of new issuance next year. There is also some concern around the inflationary effect these tax cuts could have, which may push the Fed to raise interest rates sooner than later. This dynamic would put pressure on bond prices. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 0.39% at 2.32% at the time of publication. Bond prices tend to move inversely to yields.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see overall positive signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.07% reverses to +0.18% within the next three trading sessions. The ETF is priced at $126.36 at the time of publication- down 0.22% from the open. The predicted close today is $126.28 with a low and high of $125.58 (± 0.27) and $126.95 (± 0.27), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is down 2.22% to 9.67 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows strong negative signals. The predicted close today 9.89 with a positive vector of +0.36%- which reversed to hold a negative trend for the duration of the forecast. Today’s predicted lows and highs are 9.53 (± 0.15) and 10.51 (± 0.17), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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