Market Rebounds Ahead of Thanksgiving, Closed Tomorrow

November 21, 2018
By Vlad Karpel

U.S. stocks are up today after large losses this week negated yearly gains for all three major indices. As it stands, the market continues to be oversold. Consider adding to your long positions and look towards December, typically a strong month for equities. Today’s rally has all three major U.S. indices in the green just before it will close for the Thanksgiving holiday. The market bottom is in place. Short-term market can retest $260 on SPY but has a high probability of retesting $283 in the next few weeks. For reference, SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:

Today’s big movers include the energy sector, leading the rebound after retail and tech dragged indices yesterday. Apple is back in the green today after falling yesterday and in turn bringing the Dow with it. Target earnings underwhelmed, falling in line with a good portion of third-quarter retail earnings. Several economic reports are on the docket today which could also help boost markets, including Existing Home Sales, Consumer Sentiment, and Leading Economic Indicators for the month of October. Oil’s plummet this week certainly contributed to yesterday’s sell-off, however, a late Tuesday report by the American Petroleum Institute showed an unexpected weekly decline of U.S crude supplies. This is supporting the commodity today which has since rallied.

Deere, Gap, and Footlocker are seeing a nice boost today from positive earnings which have beat expectations. This is helping recoup yesterday’s losses as the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq are all on track to close above or near 1% gains. Globally,  Asian markets closed to mixed results today while European markets were up. Tension continues to mount between the Trump and Xi administrations as both leaders are set to meet at the G20 summit later this month. Recent positive rhetoric from the Chinese officials to make concessions has been met with continued pressure by the Trump administration, pointing to a failure to alter many unfair trade practices. A troubling report from U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer reinforces the notion that no China “has not fundamentally altered its unfair, unreasonable, market-distorting practices,” to which China had responded, at the start of the investigation, it will not change its policies. Look for more updates in the days leading up to, and after, the November 30th G20 summit in Buenos Aires, the first G20 summit to be hosted in South America.

Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Today’s vector figure of -0.85% moves to +4.24% in five trading sessions. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,609.19. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  


Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade

On November 16th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE). ActiveTrader is included in all Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for intraday trading.

Trade Breakdown

ICE entered the forecasted Entry 1 price range of $80.19 (± 0.31) in its second hour of trading and hit its Target price of $80.99 in the second to last hour of trading that day, reaching a high of $81.20 for the trading day. The Stop Loss was set at $79.39.


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Thursday Morning Featured Stock

Our featured stock for Thursday is Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P. (EEP). EEP is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.  

*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.

The stock is trading at $11.2 at the time of publication, up 1.82% from the open with a +0.86% vector figure.

 

Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.


Oil

West Texas Intermediate for January delivery (CLF9) is priced at $54.92 per barrel, up 2.77% from the open, at the time of publication. Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mostly negative signals. The fund is trading at $11.63 at the time of publication, up 3.19% from the open. Vector figures show -0.58% today, which turns -3.57% in five trading sessions.  Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Gold

The price for December gold (GCZ8) is up 0.54% at $1,227.80 at the time of publication. Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $116.08, up 0.35% at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.29% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  

Treasuries

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 0.06% at 3.06% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 0.04% at 3.32% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see positive signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.23% moves to +0.10% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 9.70% at $20.3 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $20.45 with a vector of -2.36%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


PERMANENT UNLIMITED ACCESS!

– One-time BLACK – FRIDAY Special Offer – 

Subscribe now for less than the cost of one year at the regular rate!

With gains of 930%, and a 76% win-rate, a lifetime Membership could easily turn $100,000 into $1,030,010 and if the next few years are as good as the last, . . . $2.000,000. . .$5.000,000 or more.

Tradespoon Premium Service is the only trading system you’ll ever need for timely buy/sell trading calls.

Prices are going up significantly soon, so sign up before you miss ou

Click Here to Learn More

 


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