March FOMC Minutes, Core CPI, and Q1 Earnings

April 10, 2019
By Vlad Karpel

U.S. Stocks are trading modestly higher after positive inflation sentiment made rounds following today’s release of March CPI, slightly up behind gas and electricity spikes but pointing to an overall slowdown of inflation. Today’s major news to monitor includes major bank CEO’s meeting in D.C. to testify before the House Committee of Financial Services as well as the release of minutes from the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Delta Airlines and Bed Bath and Beyond first-quarter earnings are due today while Friday will see a trifecta of big bank earnings releases: Chase, PNC, and Wells Fargo. After breaking out of range, short term support for the market sits at $280-284. Continue monitoring 200-day moving average and seasonal charts as the market remains on the path to retest 52 weeks of $294. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:

Both the S&P and Nasdaq are trading modestly higher today while the Dow trades slightly lower, with slowed progress driven by Boeing struggles. Yesterday, the Trump administration threatened $11 billion worth of imports from the EU to receive tariffs, adding further concern global trade sentiment that had been easing behind China-U.S. progress. Long-term Brexit extension is also up for debate as Parliament has yet to agree on a deal or plan to leave the EU. An emergency summit within the EU will take place today and results will be made public shortly thereafter. Similarly, further news from Europe will arrive later today with the European Central Bank announcing its latest policy decision. Rates are expected to remain unchanged while comments by ECB President Mario Draghi will inform global markets on current European economic conditions. European markets are trading mostly higher today while China markets closed to mixed results.

In the U.S., consumer-price index data for March showed faster than expected pace of growth led by oil and energy sectors. Also showing signs of increase within the report is the expected cost of living, up 1.9%. Food prices rose by 0.3% while retail, auto, and airlines fares declined. Though inflation is up for the month it is considerably lower from its place and pace last year, likely slowed by abated global growth.

Elsewhere, top bank execs are scheduled to speak in front of Congress today regarding the health of the U.S. banking system post -2008 recession. CEO’s from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and State Street will converge on Captial Hill and answer questions from the House Committee of Financial Services. Look for more on this as well as minutes from the March FOMC meeting to make rounds later in the day as analysts and traders alike interpret the data and comments. Delta Airlines released first-quarter earnings before market earnings which topped expectations and helped the airline company shares rise. Also rising today is Levi, which posted earnings yesterday after market-close; shares of the jean and apparel company currently enjoying a 5% increase. After the market closes look for Bed Bath and Beyond earnings while tomorrow we will see Rite Aid earnings while Friday will feature JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and PNC financial first-quarter earnings.

Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Today’s vector figure of -0.21% moves to -1.25% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  


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Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade

On March 29th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Xerox Corp (XRX). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.

Trade Breakdown

XRX entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $32.01 (± 0.16) in its second hour of trading and passed through its Target price $32.33 in the first hour of trading the following trading day. The Stop Loss price was set at $31.69.


Thursday Morning Featured Stock

*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks please click here.

Our featured stock for Thursday is PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL). PYPL is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.  

The stock is trading at $107.02 at the time of publication, with a +0.05% vector figure.

Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.


Oil

West Texas Intermediate for May delivery (CLK9) is priced at $64.52 per barrel, up 0.86% from the open, at the time of publication.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows positive signals. The fund is trading at $13.42 at the time of publication, up 1.00% from the open. Vector figures show +0.41% today, which turns +4.89% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Gold

The price for June gold (GCM9) is up 0.34% at $1,312.70 at the time of publication.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mostly negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $123.56, at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.23% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  

Treasuries

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 0.86% at 2.48% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 0.40% at 2.90% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.13% moves to -0.72% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 3.22% at $13.82 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $14.85 with a vector of +7.10%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Introducing WeeklyTrader by Vlad Karpel –
his brand new trading system for the self-directed investor

I’ve utilized my programming skills to create a new stock and options picking program that is so incredibly accurate, profitable, astonishingly predictive and ahead of the curve that I’ve already used it to quickly double my money.

It doesn’t matter how you – or anyone – feels about a trade…
all that matters is profit

(Stock & Option Trades Updated Daily)

You Don’t Want to Miss This!

Discount Offer Ends

Midnight Tonight.

Click Here To Sign Up


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