Major indexes recover following strong earnings reports and hopeful economic data.

February 1, 2017
By Vlad Karpel

Futures for major indexes were all up this morning, following a better than expected earnings report from Apple and outstanding jobs numbers from the private sector. Apple (AAPL) has delivered strong earnings reports, which boosted the technology sector and overall market sentiment. Premarket trading was also favorable for a range of major tech companies, including Facebook (FB), Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOGL).

An ADP report showed an addition of 246,000 jobs in the private sector, which is much higher than analysts expected. The December report for the Markit manufacturing PMI is due today, as well as a report from the ISM manufacturing index. The markets will also be digesting monthly auto sales data which will sporadically report throughout the day.

The Dow is currently up 0.15% at 19890.23 after sliding earlier in the week. The Nasdaq-100 is boosted by the news from Apple, and the index is currently up 0.36% at 5635.07.  The S&P 500 is currently trading at 2277.60 which is down 0.05%  from the open.

Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows slight but consistent upward movement. Positive vector figures hold around 0.20% with slight oscillations, and build to 0.60% at the end of the window.  The predicted close today is 2280.75, with predicted support and resistance at 2276.92 (± 3.28) and 2282.54 (± 3.28), respectively.  


Upcoming Events and Reports

An FOMC meeting is ongoing, and the conclusions today will undoubtedly cause reactions in the markets. Most expect little change in attitudes toward interest rates.

A highly anticipated jobs report is due Friday, which will include government employment figures.



Investor attention has pivoted from rising U.S production to reports of follow-through from the OPEC production cut agreements. Crude oil futures have spiked and are likely to hold on to gains made in the past few days. Currently, oil prices are up 0.55% from the open at $53.09.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows slight downward corrections with some oscillations toward the end of the window. The fund is currently trading at 11.39, which is down 0.62%. Today’s prediction sees support at 11.17 (± 0.05) and resistance at 11.51 (± 0.05). The predicted close for today is 11.45.



Strong economic data and a strengthening dollar has coaxed investors out of the perceived safe-haven metal. Gold is priced in the U.S dollar, and as the currency strengthens, gold becomes much more expensive to other currencies. Prices took a dive today, currently down 0.55% at $1204.70 a troy ounce.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows sustained downward movement. Negative vector figures hold under 1% within the next 10 days, relative to today’s conditions.  The gold proxy is currently trading at 114.73, up 0.71%. Today’s predicted low is 114.14 (± 0.26) and the predicted high is 115.55 (± 0.26). The predicted close today is 114.69.  



Yields are rising today and bond prices are shedding off. The 10-year is currently hovering around 2.5%.  Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see the bond prices looking down. Negative vector figures range from 0.30% to 0.90% at the end of the 10-day window, relative to today’s conditions.  

The ETF is currently priced at $119.08, which is down 0.85% from the open. The predicted close today is 119.60 with a low and high of 118.95 (± 0.20) and 120.10 (± 0.20), respectively.



The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has drawn down to 11.91 today, a 0.67% decrease from the open.  The 10-day prediction window shows consistent downward movement, relative to today’s conditions. Negative vector values start at 1.32% today and shoot past 12% within six days, before ramping down.  The predicted close today is 12.13. Today’s predicted lows and highs are 11.86 (± 0.20) and 12.43 (± 0.21), respectively.


Other news

Following a White House meeting with executives from major pharmaceutical companies, the biotech sector has made gains. Major ETFs swung wildly on Tuesday, hanging on President Trump’s sentiments. Stocks were dumped as he decried drug prices as ‘astronomical’, but swung back toward positive territory after the meeting concluded. Trump had mentioned that he would aim for deregulation and faster drug approvals, but the details are not set in stone yet.

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