As always, earnings season started with major banks releasing quarterly reports this week with JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs reporting on Tuesday. U.S. benchmarks saw muted activity with the S&P and Dow Jones trading marginally higher while the Nasdaq closed slightly in the red. PepsiCo released their earnings on Tuesday as well while the next few days will be filled with additional bank and retail earnings. Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America report today while tomorrow we will see data from Morgan Stanley. Also released today, the latest Beige Book showed an improving economy, though on that still had ways to go before completing a substantial recovery. Likewise, Fed Chair Jerome Powell mirrored this sentiment in his two-day testimony which also focused on the latest labor data, long-term Treasury yield movement, and the rising cost of living. As always, inflation was also discussed with the Fed Chair reiterating the Federal Open Market Committee’s dedication to monitoring the U.S. inflation level. The continued rise of the delta variant of the COVID virus is causing some alarm while vaccination efforts continue worldwide. With news of the latest strand of the virus growing, volatility may be sparked in the market as the VIX currently trading near the $16-$18 level. The start of the earnings season is likely the main event to drive the market this week. TSM, MS, and SCHW are key earnings announcements this week that can potentially influence the market direction. Please watch the critical support levels on the SPY at $428 and $435. The market is trading in a well-defined range. We do expect a short-term correction to start in the next two weeks. Globally, European markets finished in the green while Asian markets were mixed. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:
For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Our featured symbol for Thursday is MasterCard Inc (MA). MA is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.
The stock is trading at $383.71 with a vector of -0.61% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, MA. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $72.72 per barrel, down 3.36% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $51.15 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is UP 1.02% at $1828.30 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $169.22 at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.67% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down, at 1.344% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 1.977% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $16.12 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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