Lack of U.S.-China Progress Slows Global Markets

September 23, 2019
By Vlad Karpel

Markets are modestly up today and remain near all-time highs for all three major indices. Strong economic data, including recent real estate and labor reports, is supporting U.S. markets while the lack of progress in U.S.-China trade developments is weighing on global markets. A trip to visit U.S. farm states by the Chinese administration was canceled on Friday but trade talks and sentiment remain positive going into next month’s meeting. The SPY short term support is near 50-days MA on SPY, $295, indicating the market has broken out of August range and we do not see the potential for the market to overshoot all-time high of $302. The SPY continues to trade between $294-$302 and we believe the market is range-bound for the time being. We will look to buy when SPY is near $282 and sell near $300. We encourage maintaining clearly defined stop levels for all positions as further volatility is expected. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:

All three major U.S. indices are on track to close in the green today following last week’s U.S.-China trade development and central bank decisions. Both the U.S. Fed and European Central Bank decided to cut interest rates over the last two weeks while China and U.S. have both announced recent tariff exemptions. Promising developments in U.S.-China negotiations ahead of next month’s meeting is easing global trade tensions and supporting markets to near-record highs. Last week, China canceled a trip to U.S. farm states but which caused markets to slightly dip on Friday but does not look to impact markets further as October’s meeting remains intact. Economic reports remain light this week with several reports releasing later in the week including GDP revision, personal income, and core inflation. 

Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows mostly positive signals. Today’s vector figure of -0.18% moves to +0.57% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  


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Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade

On September 6th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for TJX Companies (TJX). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.

Trade Breakdown

TJX entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $55.77 (± 0.38) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price $56.33 in the first hour of trading that day. The Stop Loss price was set at $55.21


Tuesday Morning Featured Symbol

*Please note: At the time of publication we do not own the featured symbol, SSY. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks,  please click here.

Our featured symbol for Tuesday is Sysco Corporation (SYY). SYY is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.  

The stock is trading at $76.68 at the time of publication, up 0.56% from the open with a +0.12% vector figure.

Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.


Oil

West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $58.54 per barrel, up 0.77% from the open, at the time of publication.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $12.23 at the time of publication, up 0.25% from the open. Vector figures show -0.12% today, which turns 1.00% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session. 

Gold

The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 1.04% at $1,530.70 at the time of publication.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $143.72, up 0.54% at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.29% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Treasuries

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 1.56% at 1.70% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 0.25% at 2.14% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see positive signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.21% moves to +0.55% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 2.81% at $14.89 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $14.78 with a vector of +0.53%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


Sign up now for Lifetime Access and pay less than the cost of just 1 year and lock-in …
PERMANENT UNLIMITED ACCESS!

  • Subscribe now for less than the cost of one year at the regular rate!

  • With 36 month trailing gains of 1,314%, and an 75% win-rate, a lifetime Membership could easily turn $100,000 into $1,414,472

  • Tradespoon Premium is the only trading service you’ll ever need.

CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP


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