President Trump’s infrastructure plan announcement- offering $200 billion in grants to spark an investment drive of about $1.5 trillion- has so far only slightly abated the lingering sell-off wave which started last week. Inflation concerns are still top of mind for market participants, and investors will be keeping a close eye on all upcoming economic data for more context. Wednesday will see a release of U.S. consumer price data, which will better inform investors about inflation concerns. Most will look to this data as a confirmation signal to the recent jobs and wage growth data which stoked inflation fears.
At the time of publication, the DJIA is up 1.96%, or 473.84 points, at 24,664.87. The S&P 500 is at 2,660.17- up 1.55% from the open. The Nasdaq-100 is up 1.66% at 6,987.83.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows consistent negative signals. Today’s negative vector figure of -0.31% moves to -4.02% within three trading sessions. Today’s predicted support and resistance levels are 2,547.67 (± 8.34) and 2,619.55 (± 8.57), respectively. The predicted close today is 2,573.61. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
We’re going to be analyzing the market, and will follow up Wednesday with another featured stock to trade this week. Today, we will forego the featured stock trade as our research team keeps an eye on trading activity.
Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade
On February 7, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Edwards Lifesciences Corporation (EW). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for intraday trading.
EW opening within the Entry 1 price range $125.87 (± 0.60) and moved through its Target price of $127.13 within the first hour of trading.
Live Trading Room Update
When the market was down last week, see how we traded in volatile conditions and what you might expect in our next Live Trading Room. Last week, on Feb. 8, we held a Live Trading Room Session where our winning trades ranged 6.25% to over 28% ROI!
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Our Live Trading Room is open every trading day from 9:15 am Eastern Time, but these Live Trading Sessions are only available for Premium Members.
We wanted to share the recording with you so you can see the profits you might be missing- even during very volatile markets.
A recovery in equities is providing a regenerative boost for crude prices as a slightly weaker dollar provides a tailwind. Most are still cautious about a long-term rebound for oil, as U.S. production levels have ramped up again to take advantage of the overall bull market for crude. Geopolitical tensions are also up front this week, following an exchange of fire between Syrian and Israeli forces over the weekend which may have left almost half of Syria’s air defense arrays destroyed. West Texas Intermediate for March delivery (CLH8) is priced at $59.28 per barrel at the time of publication, up 0.34% from the open.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows strong negative signals. The fund is trading at $11.89 at the time of publication, up 0.30% from the open. Today’s prediction sees support at $11.31 (± 0.05) and resistance at $11.86 (± 0.06). The predicted close for today is $11.62. Vector figures show -2.31% today, which move to -5.04% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for April gold (GCJ8) is up 0.81% at $1,326.70 at the time of publication. Although there appears to be a recovery in equities, and bond yields are evening out, the safe-haven metal is seeing gains. This is likely due to the overall atmosphere of uncertainty around the volatility in the stock markets, as well as overhanging inflation fears amongst investors. The U.S. dollar is relatively weaker at the start of this week, which would make gold an attractive investment to those holding foreign currencies. Gold may continue to behave in atypical ways as long as investors are unsure of the strength of the Trump bump and the pace of Fed interest-rate hikes.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows consistent negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $125.61, up 0.67% at the time of publication. Today’s predicted low is $123.49 (± 0.21) and the predicted high is $124.77 (± 0.21). The predicted close today was $123.87. Vector signals show -0.41% for today, moving to -1.23% in the next three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Treasury yields are seeing relative normalcy today, edging a bit higher as pressure on U.S. government paper resumes. The Treasury Department is set to increase the amount of upcoming debt issuance, due to the budget deficit, at the same time as the Federal Reserve is starting to unwind its massive balance sheet. This means that the Fed does not have the same purchasing power as it used to, stoking uncertainty in the bond market. Wednesday’s consumer price index data will provide more clues about inflation, which will, in turn, inform investors about possible reactions from the Fed. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 0.28% at 2.84% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see consistent negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.55% moves to -0.59% in three trading sessions. The ETF is priced at $118.44 at the time of publication, up 0.42%. The predicted close today is $117.34 with a low and high of $116.91 (± 0.21) and $118.12 (± 0.22), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is down 11.67% at 25.67 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows strong positive signals. Volatility will continue to fluctuate as uncertainty prevails amidst inflation fears and sentiments around a long-term correction in stocks. The predicted close is 30.61 with a positive vector of +8.12%. The predicted lows and highs are 27.63 (± 1.00) and 31.04 (± 1.12), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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