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After a big week that saw mostly lukewarm reactions to the G-7 summit, the meeting between North Korea and the U.S., and the two-day Federal Reserve meeting, markets are climbing higher today after the positive news to support both domestic and global markets. U.S. assets and indices were boosted by four positive economic reports while European markets saw gains as its Central Bank policymakers meeting resulted in a decision to end its bond-buying program by the end of the year. With geopolitical concerns cooling from what could’ve been a troublesome week on multiple fronts, investors should look forward to selling into rallies as the overbought nature of market remains. Seasonal charts will provide good indicators of to the path of least resistance and both short and long-term traders can benefit from this data.
All three major U.S. indices rose in early morning trading and while the S&P and Nasdaq remain up, at the time of publication, the Dow Jones has taken a slight turn into negative territory, currently at -0.12% for the day. The boost in U.S. assets seems to have come from the trifecta of good economic data for the month of May that included retail sales, import price index, and business inventories which all rose by modest gains. Simultaneously, the first week of June showed a drop in jobless which will fare well for June’s labor reports and surely assist in boosting markets now. It is certainly promising for investors to see neither headline news nor geopolitical worries sway the market as strongly as economic data and reports have. To go through a week that included a meeting with Kim Jong Un and President Trump, a Fed Reserve interest rate hike, and a seemingly deteriorating relationship between U.S. and its allies, both U.S. stocks and global markets were mostly affected by actions strictly on the financial end with economic reports and bank policymakers causing the most waves. Fortunately, these waves look to support markets and thus far have.
The European Central Bank, on top of ending its bond-buying program, also announced it will not raise its rates until 2019. This is opposite of the recent Fed decision to raise the interest rates to the range of 1.75% to 2.00%. Similarly, however, both U.S. and European markets have since shown decent gains and will look to ride them into the weekend. At the moment, the dollar looks to be up for the day while the Euro slid.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows all positive signals. Today’s vector figure of 0.29% moves to 0.75% in four trading sessions before climbing higher into positive territory later in the week. Today’s predicted support and resistance levels are 2,773.42 (±6.27) and 2,808.95 (± 6.36), respectively. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,801.47. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On June 11th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX). ActiveTrader, included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans, is designed for intraday trading.
TJX opened near Entry 1 price range of $94.44 (± 0.38) and moved through its Target Price of $95.38 in its second hour of trading, reaching a high of $95.49. The Stop Loss was set at $93.50.
Our featured stock for Friday is F5 Networks, Inc. (FFIV). FFIV is showing a confident uptrend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A)– indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe. Our 10-day prediction model shows positive vector figure reaching +2.59% in three trading sessions which then incrementally builds throughout the 10-day forecast. Our benchmark for vector figures is +1.00%.
*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
The stock is trading at $181.2 at the time of publication, up 0.80% from the open with a +0.67% vector figure.
Friday’s prediction shows an open price of $178.90, a low of $177.07 and a high of $182.94.
The predicted close for Friday is $181.21. Vector figures stay positive and drive upward from there. This is a good signal for trading opportunities because we use vectors as a primary factor in determining price movements for stocks and ETF.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
Oil futures traded slightly lower today after climbing all week as pressure from a spike in U.S. weekly production finally seemed to affect the commodity. Similarly, after gains in crude benchmarks, the commodity retreated globally. West Texas Intermediate for July delivery (CLN8) is priced at $66.62 per barrel, down .03% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows all positive signals. The fund is trading at $13.50 at the time of publication, up 0.23% from the open. Tomorrow’s prediction sees support at $13.34 and resistance at $13.67. The predicted close for tomorrow is $13.49. Vector figures show 0.27% today, which turns 1.22% in four trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Although the dollar climbed today, gold was also on the move up. This is contrary to usual trend but both gold and the dollar looked to be boosted by the strong economic data on both domestic and global fronts. The price for August gold (GCQ8) is down 0.05% at $1,302.40 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mostly all positive signals. The gold proxy is trading at $123.375, up .15% at the time of publication. Tomorrow’s predicted low is $122.71 and the predicted high is $123.46. The predicted close for tomorrow is $123.07. Vector signals show 0.21% for today, reaching -0.24% in two trading sessions before returning into positive territory. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Most yields look to be down today, as all but two-year treasury notes traded lower. Tightening of the monetary policy and a likely fourth interest rate hike in 2018 put pressure on yields causing them to retreat. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 1.02% at 2.94% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 0.95% at 3.06% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.50% moves to +0.02% in four trading sessions before returning to negative territory. The ETF is priced at $119.82 at the time of publication, up 0.45%. The predicted close tomorrow is $118.19 with a low and high of $118.16 and $119.60, respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 6.18% at 12.14 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mostly all negative signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is 12.78 with a vector of 2.94%. The predicted lows and highs for tomorrow are 11.29 and 14.37, respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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