Global Markets Up On First Day of New Quarter, China-U.S. Trade Talks Continue In D.C. This Week

April 1, 2019
By Vlad Karpel

Major U.S. indices are trending up today with modest gains behind positive manufacturing and retail data as well as U.S.-China trade talk progress. Trade talks return to D.C. with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He in Washington today following several concessions announced this weekend regarding retaliatory tariffs. Brexit future remains muddled after May’s third attempt at her draft deal failed in Parliament, look for more votes to come this week on alternate solutions. Lyft is seeing its shares lower after initially spiking following its IPO, while Kellogg is also trending down following sale announcement of their cookie, snack, and dessert based companies to Ferrero Group. We remain bullish in the long term and encourage our members to monitor seasonality charts and 200-day moving average. Currently, we are trading above the SPY 200-day moving average of $275, with support at $280 and resistance at 52 weeks high of $294. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:

All three major U.S. insides are on track to record gains today on the first day of the new quarter. Retail data showed a slight slip in the month of February, down 0.2%, while global manufacturing data looked promising. Both U.S. and China reported positive manufacturing reports for the month of March while European manufacturing lagged behind. The U.S. manufacturing index rose to 55.3% in March, up from 54.2% in February, while China’s PMI rose to 50.8% in March, compared to the 49% it reported in February. Globally, Asian and European markets recorded gains today.

Chinese Vice Premier Liu is set to meet with top trader advisors today in D.C. after talks took place in Beijing last week. Over the weekend, China took another positive step in hopes of a deal being brokered soon when the world’s second-largest economy announced it would concede its previously reported retaliatory tariff measures. While it has been long projected President Trump and Xi could meet in April to sign off on such deal, no formal framework or deal has yet to be produced. Look for more on this as the week progresses, likely supporting the market if an agreement or meeting is brokered. Over in the U.K., Prime Minister May saw her third attempt a deal fail on the Parliament floor and will no once more open the floor for discussion and vote on alternate solutions.

Other news to note today includes recent Kellog company sales as well as Lyft’s up and down start. After debuting its IPO and seeing shares fly off the shelf, going up as high as 10% gains, Lyft is seeing its first downswing today, on track to close between 9%-11% lower. Kellog is also seeing shares dip after it announced it would sell its cookie, dessert, and snack arms of the company to Ferrero Group. This includes Famous Amos cookies, Fruits Snacks, and other subsidies of the Michigan-based food-manufacturing giant. Major earnings to monitor this week include Walgreens and Gamestop tomorrow, Constellation Brands on Thursday.

Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Today’s vector figure of +034% moves to -1.19% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


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Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade

On March 29th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Xerox Corp (XRX). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.

Trade Breakdown

XRX entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $32.01 (± 0.16) in its second hour of trading and passed through its Target price $32.33 in the first hour of trading the following trading day. The Stop Loss price was set at $31.69.


Tuesday Morning Featured Stock

*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.

Our featured stock for Tuesday is AutoNation Inc. (AN). AN is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.  

The stock is trading at $36.04 at the time of publication, up 1.00% from the open with a +0.85% vector figure.

Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.


Oil

West Texas Intermediate for May delivery (CLK9) is priced at $61.60 per barrel, up 2.43% from the open, at the time of publication. Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows negative signals. The fund is trading at $12.79 at the time of publication. Vector figures show -0.37% today, which turns -0.76% in five trading sessions.  Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Gold

The price for June gold (GCM9) is down 0.44% at $1,292.80 at the time of publication. Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $121.62.  Vector signals show +0.22% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  

Treasuries

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 3.62% at 2.49% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 2.43% at 2.89% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see positive signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.58% moves to +1.87% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 0.22% at $13.68 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mostly negative signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $13.45 with a vector of -4.25%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


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Our Elite Trading Circle is almost full, but we do have 5 spots available.
Acceptance is on a first come first served basis and there is NO RISK to try.

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