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Major U.S. indices are on track to close in the green today after reaching record highs yesterday. The Dow opened in the red this morning behind struggling Boeing and Caterpillar shares, as well as Deere earnings which released this morning and saw shares lower over 4%, only to rebound in the afternoon. U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and will be open for half of the trading day on Friday. The latest comments regarding the China-U.S. negotiations from both sides have helped global markets trade higher this week; also supporting U.S. stocks are today’s economic reports, including consumer spending and GDP, which returned positively. With SPY overhead resistance at $317, we will look to buy when the SPY is near $303 level. There is little evidence SPY will retest its 200 days MA and we expect further volatility, as well as shallow pullbacks. We encourage Market Commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
With both the U.S. and China providing positive comments regarding trade deal progress, global markets were able to trade higher today. All three major U.S. indices are on track to close in the green, at the time of publication, adding further to the record-high levels indices entered this week. President Trump stated both sides were in the “final throes” of negotiations, while China echoed a similar sentiment. Still, a December meet-up and/or removal of the mid-month tariffs by either side is still undetermined. This follows data from both sides that show some slowdown in their respective economies, with U.S. good and Chinese manufacturing slightly down for the previous month.
Several notable economic reports were released today which also helped U.S. markets rise. Consumer spending for October rose, durable goods were up 0.6%, and inflation dipped to 1.6%. However, not all reports returned glowingly, as housing data for the last month was reported down. Other major stocks seeing movement today include Dell, which lowered 5% behind a downgrade in guidance, and Deere, which lowered off unimpressive third-quarter earnings released this morning. Next week, look out for several key economic reports including ADP Employment, Trade Deficit, Factory Orders, Consumer Credit, and more. Salesforce, Lululemon, and Dollar General report earnings next week.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Today’s vector figure of -0.12% moves to +0.18% in four trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On November 11th, our MonthlyTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Eli Lilly and Company (LLY). MonthlyTrader is included in Tools, Premium, Elite Trading Circle or available as a standalone subscription. This service provides 3 bullish and 3 bearish stock & single option signals for 2-5 day trades.
Trade Breakdown
LLY entered its forecasted Strategy A Entry 1 price range $112.03 (± 0.70) in its first hour of trading on 11/14 and passed through its Target price of $117.63 in the first hour of trading today- 11/25/19. The Stop Loss price was set at $106.43. Every stock recommendation includes a single option strategy based on the stock price parameters.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does not have a position in the featured symbol, PFI. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
Our featured symbol for Friday is Prudential Financial Inc (PRU). PRU is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for current-day predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $94.2 at the time of publication, up 0.57% from the open with a +0.27% vector figure.
Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $58.04 per barrel, down 0.63% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows a near-term negative trend. The fund is trading at $12.10 at the time of publication, down 0.08% from the open. Vector figures show -0.90% today, which turns -1.29% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 0.45% at $1,453.70 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. The gold proxy is trading at $136.94, down 0.58% at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.43% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 1.33% at 1.77% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 0.55% at 2.19% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see overall positive signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.40% moves to +0.53% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is at $11.54 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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