Global Markets Rise for Third Straight Day, China Negotiations Continue

February 13, 2019
By Vlad Karpel

Markets are on the move up today as political and global trade tensions ease with continued development on both ends sparking optimism. The U.S. partial government shutdown looks to be avoided as Congress drafts a bill that the President will need to sign by midnight Friday to keep the government open. Also supporting markets today are President Trump’s recent, positive comments regarding Chinese trade negotiations and flexibility with the upcoming deadline. Brexit uncertainty remains, partially holding back European markets, but overall equity markets worldwide have risen for the third straight day. With the current financial climate, we continue encouraging our members to avoid chasing the market and using our tools to find good opportunities for buying the selloffs. The market could easily revert to $260-264 SPY support level but should not retest last year’s lows until the 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2019. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:

All three major U.S. indices are trending up today, continuing their streak behind global and domestic support in the form of positive, non-interruptive news. After congressional negotiations broke down over the weekend it looks like Congress has come together to draft a bill that will fund and keep the government open ahead of Friday’s deadline. President Trump must sign this bill to keep the government open, though little is known at this point regarding the details of the deal and specifically the border security funding issues that initiated the previous shutdown. Yesterday, Trump opened up the possibility of delaying the March deadline he set to resume and increase Chinese tariffs as long as negotiations were progressing. As negotiations continue in Beijing, Trump has once more signaled his flexibility in dealing with China while China’s President Xi will join the Beijing negotiations on Friday.

Brexit negotiations continue to be bogged down by bipartisan disagreement and its become more and more likely the upcoming deadline to leave the EU will arrive without a deal in place. In the meantime, inflation has grown in the U.K. by nearly 2% in the new year while industrial production fell in the month of December, signaling struggles in the economy as the more recent Brexit turmoil began to surface. This week, however, global markets have fared well, rising for three straight days. Asian, European, and U.S. markets are recording modest gains for the week, along with gold, while oil has significantly risen this week.

Yesterday, Activision Blizzard announced earnings, topping expectations and helping the symbol to nice gains, currently up 3%. Look for Cisco earnings after market close today, along with Marathon Oil and CenturyLink. Hilton Worldwide Holdings reported before market open to beat expectations today, powering shares to 5% gains. Coca-Cola, Duke Energy, and Nissan report tomorrow while Pepsico reports Friday. Also tomorrow, Producer Price Index report for the month of January and Weekly Jobless claims for the previous week. Several key reports, such as Retail Sales and Business Inventories, remain delayed from the government shutdown.

 

Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.60% moves to -1.44% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  


(LAST CHANCE) You Don’t Want to Miss This!

Today only, we are doing something we have RARELY do!

We are offering LIFETIME ACCESS to our Stock Forecast Toolbox Membership for less than the regular price we normally charge for only 1 year of service!

***Starting next week, we will be adding an annual maintenance fee to all lifetime memberships, but if you sign up before that happens, you will be locked in and will not need to pay this fee!

Click Here to For More Information


Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade

On February 1st, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for NetApp, Inc. (NTAP). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.

Trade Breakdown

NTAP opened in its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $63.77 (± 0.43) and passed through its Target price $64.41 in the first hour of trading, reaching a high of $67.06. The Stop Loss price was set at $63.13.


Thursday Morning Featured Stock

*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.

Our featured stock for Thursday is Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL). GOOGL is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A) indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.  

The stock is trading at $1133.72 at the time of publication, up 0.54% from the open with a +0.60% vector figure.

Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.


Oil

West Texas Intermediate for March delivery (CLH9) is priced at $53.92 per barrel, up 1.56% from the open, at the time of publication. Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mostly positive signals. The fund is trading at $11.335 at the time of publication, up 1.57% from the open. Vector figures show -0.02% today, which turns +1.37% in five trading sessions.  Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Gold

The price for April gold (GCJ9) is down 0.30% at $1,310.00 at the time of publication. Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mostly negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $123.4, down 0.37% at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.17% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  

Treasuries

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 0.84% at 2.71% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 0.41% at 3.03% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see positive signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.15% moves to +0.74% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 0.32% at $15.38 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $16.13 with a vector of +1.72%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


(LAST CHANCE) You Don’t Want to Miss This!

Today only, we are doing something we have RARELY do!

We are offering LIFETIME ACCESS to our Stock Forecast Toolbox Membership for less than the regular price we normally charge for only 1 year of service!

***Starting next week, we will be adding an annual maintenance fee to all lifetime memberships, but if you sign up before that happens, you will be locked in and will not need to pay this fee!

Click Here to For More Information


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