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After closing sharply lower to end last week, U.S. indices once again saw significant losses as omicron variant COVID concerns pressured the market. Last week, markets responded to the central bank’s latest policy update with the Fed announcing their plan of two hike rates in 2022 and a scaling back of the bond-buying program. These preventive measures to ease inflation signaled a hawkish, yet worrisome, stance from the Fed and triggered a selloff to end the week which has now transcended into the current, shortened trading week. All three indices closed in the red with the Dow down almost 500 points, after dropping just as much on Friday. COVID rates will continue to impact markets as the data for the latest variant continues to be calculated. Crude oil prices dipped significantly as global concerns continue to mount.
Omicron virus and latest economic reports, specifically those further illuminating inflation status, can impact the next move in the market. NKE, MU, GIS, KMX are key earnings announcements this week that can potentially influence the market direction. We’re watching the vital support levels in the SPY, which are presently at $462 and then $450 (a low-probability event at this time.) We expect the market to continue dropping this week before rebounding in the coming weeks. Globally, both European and Asian markets closed significantly lower. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The symbol is trading at $39.68 with a vector of -0.72% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, jpm. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $68.66 per barrel, down 3.10% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $51.44 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 0.84% at $1789.89 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $167 at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.28% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down, at 1.414% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 1.801% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $20.31 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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