Geopolitical Worries Return, Markets Reverses Course

May 23, 2018
By Vlad Karpel

Reignited geopolitical concerns have U.S. assets and major markets down today, along with most European and Asian markets, as trade worries resurface and erase much of Monday’s optimism and gains. Bulls want the market to stay above 2700, otherwise, next support is at 50-day SMA 2670. Sell into the rallies and monitor my Season Charts for support and resistance levels, which should inform traders for optimal entry and exit positions.

With just modest losses of less than 1% in the Dow Jones, S&P, and Nasdaq investors shouldn’t be too throttled by Wednesday’s action as we’ve seen this type of volatility come and go all year. Trump made headlines when he said he was not pleased with the U.S.-China trade talks, which were initially received positively and boosted the market earlier this week, and is reportedly considering cutting European exports to the U.S. by 10%. This came on the heels of news that Trump’s meeting with the North Korean President Kim Jong Un might not happen after all.

The bidding war for Fox might be on between Comcast and Disney as the telecommunications giant is reported to be in advanced stages of its offer to buy Fox, countering Disney’s earlier reported interest in purchasing 21st Century Fox. This boosted Fox stock while both Disney and Comcast took subtle hits for the day; another major merger might be just ahead. Tiffany & Co., Ralph Lauren, and Lowe’s all rose impressively after strong earnings reports while Target shares fell after its earnings report did not fare so well.

Earlier today, U.S New-Home Sales report came in below expectations, while later today minutes from the May Fed meeting are scheduled to be released.

Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Today’s vector figure of -0.47% moves to +0.15% in four trading sessions staying mostly postive from there. Today’s predicted support and resistance levels are 2,709.56 (±8.61) and 2,728.58 (± 8.67), respectively. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,724.29. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  

Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade

On May 23rd, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST). ActiveTrader, included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans, is designed for intraday trading.

Trade Breakdown

HST opened within Entry 1 price range of $21.10 (± 0.12), moving through its Target Price of $21.31 in it the first hour of trading, reaching $21.37. The Stop Loss was set at $20.89.

Thursday Morning Buy Alert!

Our featured stock for Thursday is Freeport-McMoRan (FCX). FCX is showing a confident uptrend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A)– indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.  Our 10-day prediction model shows positive vector figure reaching +1.94% in two trading sessions which then incrementally builds throughout the 10-day forecast. Our benchmark for vector figures is +1.00%.

*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.

The stock is trading at $17.055 at the time of publication, down 0.67% from the open with a +1.00% vector figure.

Thursday’s prediction shows an open price of $16.94, a low of $16.82 and a high of $17.98.

The predicted close for Thursday is $17.76. Vector figures stay positive and drive upward from there. This is a good signal for trading opportunities because we use vectors as a primary factor in determining price movements for stocks and ETF.

Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.


Live Trading Room Update

When the market was down this week, see how we traded in volatile conditions and what you might expect in our next Live Trading Room. During recent volatility, we held Live Trading Room Session on May 22 where our winning trades ranged .66% to over 55% ROI!

Symbol Net Gain %
BK 36.67%
VLO .66%
LYB 55.83%
BK 11.59%
 HAL (OPTION)  25.00%

Our Live Trading Room is open every trading day from 9:15 am Eastern Time, but Live Trading Room Sessions are only available for Premium Members.

We wanted to share the recording with you so you can see the profits you might be missing- even during very volatile markets.

Click Here to Watch How I Generate Profits During this Volatile Market!


Oil

West Texas Intermediate for June delivery (CLM8) is priced at $71.89 per barrel, down .80% from the open, at the time of publication. A surprise jump in U.S. supplies had the commodity trading lower today. The EIA reported crude supplies were up 5.8 million barrels last week. Gasoline stockpiles were up for the week while distillate stockpiles were down.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $14.5184 at the time of publication, down .29% from the open. Tomorrow’s prediction sees support at $14.47 and resistance at $14.70. The predicted close for tomorrow is $14.65. Vector figures show -0.10% today, which turns +0.15% in four trading sessions.  Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

 

Gold

Gold continues to head lower as the commodity traded down to its lowest price of the year at 1288.70 earlier. Although markets were down, the U.S. dollar continued to strongly perform which further stalled the commodity. The price for June gold (GCM8) is down 0.16% at $1,291.00 at the time of publication.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows all negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $122.68, up .22% at the time of publication. Tomorrow’s predicted low is $121.67 and the predicted high is $122.23. The predicted close for tomorrow is $121.92. Vector signals show -0.20% for today, reaching -1.17% in four trading session. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  

 

Treasuries

U.S. yields dropped as investors bought up bonds in response to recent Trump remarks which have swiftly reignited global trade concerns. Investors should look for minutes from the May Fed official meeting for further indication on possible rate rises this year.   The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 1.53% at 3.02% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 1.03% from the open at 3.17%.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.41% moves to -0.36% in three trading sessions. The ETF is priced at $118.00 at the time of publication, up 0.78%. The predicted close tomorrow is $117.76 with a low and high of $117.54 and $118.40, respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 0.83% at 13.11 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows all positive signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is 14.02 with a vector of +16.22%. The predicted lows and highs for tomorrow are 13.68 and 15.38, respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.


If this volatile market has you in knots… you’re gonna love this! This is your no-risk, no-strings-attached opportunity to test drive this incredibly accurate program with a 77.1% winning record, even in this wild market! Tradespoon’s Stock Forecast Toolbox is the NEWEST VERSION of the ultra-high-tech that’s been making fortunes (817.1%) for select savvy investors since July 2016!

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