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Markets are on the rise today following positive reports from the G20 summit where U.S.-China met to discuss trade. The S&P hit an intraday record behind the news both sides agreed to avoid escalating tariffs while a trade agreement is worked upon. Both the Dow and S&P were able to show record numbers June and are maintaining momentum on the first day of July. President Trump stated the meeting with President Xi went “far better than expected” and both sides are aimed at resolving their trade dispute. Oil rallied following the OPEC-announced production cuts ahead of their meeting in Vienna, at which the recent Iran conflicts will surely be discussed. During this week’s shortened trading week, corporate earnings and U.S. economic reports will be light. As mentioned previously, SPY continues to trade at an all-time high level. We continue encouraging our readers to buy near $286 level and avoid chasing near $296. Some volatility is expected as developments between U.S. and China continue to reported following G20 but we do not see market momentum pushing SPY above $300 level this week. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
U.S. major indices and futures remain in the green today after G20 meetings between Chines and U.S. officials produced a truce on escalating tariffs between both sides and a path forward towards a trade agreement. While both sides will continue discussions in the weeks to come, for now, it looks only active tariffs will remain in effect and no further tariffs will arise, unless negotiations breakdown. Another major advancement in the talks involved Huawei, which Trump agreed to drop the ban, allowing U.S. companies to sell their products to the Chinese tech company. Look for manufacturing data this week to help possibly guide the direction of the Fed in the remaining FOMC meetings in 2019. A rate cut could be in play although Fed Chair shied away from the topic following the last FOMC meeting, which did not increase nor cut rates. Other key reports to monitor during the shortened trading week include June vehicle sales, May trade deficit data, and factory orders, along with the regular weekly employment data.
Oil remains in focus this week with OPEC set to meet in Vienna. Last week, two separate Iran incidents drew attention to the region while oil prices and futures rallied. This week, the sentiment remains as oil continues to rise in the green territory. Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to cut production for another six to nine months which could be seen as a result of the recent Iranian activity. Look for more clarity on this topic following the conclusion of the OPEC summit. Globally, Asian markets closed to mixed results with China and Japan significantly in the green while Hong Kong closed in the red. Europe saw modest gains throughout. No corporate U.S. earnings of significance will be released this week. Markets will be closed Thursday in observance of U.S. Independence Day.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.38% moves to -0.39% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 pm, CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On June 28th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for CenturyLink Inc (CTL). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.
Trade Breakdown
CTL entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $11.64 (± 0.09) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price $11.76 in the fifth hour of trading that day. The Stop Loss price was set at $11.52.
*Please note: At the time of publication we do not own the featured symbol, ADBE. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
Our featured symbol for Tuesday is Adobe Inc (ADBE). ADBE is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A) indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $300.61 at the time of publication, up 2.00% from the open with a +1.58% vector figure.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $59.03 per barrel, up 0.97% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows positive signals. The fund is trading at $12.27 at the time of publication, up 2.00% from the open. Vector figures show +0.55% today, which turns +8.06% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 1.85% at $1,387.40 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. The gold proxy is trading at $130.67, down 2.00% at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.12% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 1.46% at 2.04% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 1.12% at 2.56% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see positive signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.01% moves to +0.04% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 3.18% at $14.6 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $15.07 with a vector of +0.18%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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