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After Wednesday’s release of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes, which reaffirmed support for a faster pace of interest rate hikes and a big drop in the central bank’s $9 trillion balance sheet, US stock benchmarks recouped losses. Although all three started the session in the red, the S&P was able to close in the green while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones finished with marginal losses. The latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes showed a Fed that was ready to increase interest rate hikes in the near future and looked to address the inflation issue promptly. The tone of the Fed’s comments was hawkish, as it has come to expect from the US central bank while attempting to curb high living expenses before they endanger the economy. Another hot-button issue that has dominated headlines in recent days was the state of Ukraine, which has increased tension between Russia and the United States.
Earnings also remain in focus although earnings season is winding down. Viacom and Shopify saw shares tank over 15% following missing earnings estimates while Nvidia, Cisco, and Applied Materials saw shares boosted alongside their reports. On Thursday, quarterly earnings will be headlined by Walmart and Roku while Friday will feature DraftKings and Deere.
We are watching the vital support levels in the SPY, which are presently at $430 and then $400. The $SPY Overhead resistance is at $460 and we expect the market to continue the rebound in the next 1-2 months. The $VIX is presently trading higher, near the 30-level. Globally, Asian markets closed in the green while European markets finished lower. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The symbol is trading at $32.52 with a vector of +0.02% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, HAL. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $90.27 per barrel, down 1.90% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $64.28 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.71% at $1869.40 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $173.08 at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.25% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down, at 2.044% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 2.355% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $24.29 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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