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Markets traded impressively higher today with the S&P reaching its intraday record high at 4,361.71 while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones also traded in the green. Today’s release of the last month’s Federal Open Market Committee minutes supported U.S. indices with continued support for slowing the central bank’s asset purchasing program while also potentially moving up their forecasted date for when interest rates could be increased. Labor data also supported markets with a record 9.21 million job openings in May and continued growth in employment, signaling a progressing recovery from COVID’s economic effects. Next week, corporate earnings season picks up with major banks releasing their reports. VIX is at the 16 level with the latest June unemployment numbers sparking volatility in the market. Fear of inflation and additional info from last month’s FOMC decision are the main events that continue to drive the market this week. JPM, TSM, and DAL are key earnings announcements in the upcoming weeks that can potentially influence the market direction. Please watch the critical support levels on the SPY at $424 and $430. The market is trading in a well-defined range. We do expect a short-term correction to spill into July. Globally, European markets finished in the green while Asian markets were mixed. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:
For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Our featured symbol for Thursday is American Express Company (AXP). AXP is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.
The stock is trading at $169.56 with a vector of -0.58% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, AXP. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $72.01 per barrel, down 1.85% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $48.8 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.55% at $1804.10 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $168.91 at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.03% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down, at 1.318% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 1.940% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $16.36 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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