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U.S. stocks are slightly down today and all eyes are on the conclusion of the two-day Fed meeting. There will be no press conference after the meeting but Chairman Powell has vowed to meet with the press after every FOMC in 2019 and on, raising the importance of the subsequent notes and minutes from today’s meeting. For three straight days, stocks made gains around the midterm election but today’s post-election downturn seems to point to an overbought short-term market. Investors should monitor overhead resistance which is in line with the 50-day moving average at $280-$282 level. Although elections are through, expect volatility to last for another two weeks. Investors should not chase the market at this level and buy when market sells off closer to $270 level for SPY. For reference, SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Yesterday, all three major U.S. indices saw their best days since mid-October which capped off a three-day rally that surrounded the midterm elections. Congress was split after the results were tallied, giving the House to the Democrats while the Republicans remained in control of the Senate. The long-term effect and sentiment of this election on the market is yet to be determined but for now it seems as though any short-term large-scale changes on a federal level are unlikely with a split Congress and will likely stall through 2020 election. Further turmoil between both parties is also a point of interest as rhetoric has wavered from optimistic to combative at times.
Updated Fed policy will be released today which should provide further clarification on market condition. A new interest rate hike will not be implemented after today’s meeting which points to the December meeting for the fourth expected interest rate hike of the year. This, along with the conclusion of earnings, will provide plenty for investors to work off in the coming days. More than half of all companies set to report have reported and, in large, earnings have been positive; the S&P, for example, had an average earnings growth of over 25%. Some big market-movers today include Cardinal Health, which rose 4% after earnings beat expectations, TripAdvisor shares soared, up 15%, after the after-market report yesterday saw the company beat expectation. L Brands, parent company to Victoria Secret and Bath & Body Works, also rose today after the company reported sales and store growth, shares rising 5% today. Square Inc. and Qualcomm disappointed investors with heavily underperforming reports, currently both down over 7%.
Aftermarket reporting today will include Disney, Blizzard, Dropbox, and Yelp. Tesla rose almost 2% today, after 4% growth yesterday when it announced Robyn Denholm as its new chairman. Globally, both Asian and European markets were mixed today, though only modestly in either direction.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Today’s vector figure of +1.34% moves to -1.02% in five trading sessions. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,837.34. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On November 7th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Starbucks Corp. (SBUX). ActiveTrader is included in all Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for intraday trading.
Trade Breakdown
SBUX entered the forecasted Entry 1 price range of $66.01 (± 0.66) in its first hour of trading and hit its Target price of $66.67 that hour, reaching a high of $68.14 for the trading day. The Stop Loss was set at $65.35.
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Our featured stock for Friday is Travelers Companies Inc (TRV). TRV is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A) indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
The stock is trading at $130.76 at the time of publication, up 0.37% from the open with a +0.75% vector figure.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for December delivery (CLZ8) is priced at $60.55 per barrel, down 1.80% from the open, at the time of publication. Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows negative signals. The fund is trading at $12.85 at the time of publication, down 1.61% from the open. Vector figures show -0.03% today, which turns -4.38% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for December gold (GCZ8) is down 0.35% at $1,224.30 at the time of publication. Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mostly negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $115.71, down 0.28% at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.01% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 0.01% at 3.24% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 0.05% at 3.43% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.28% moves to -0.65% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 3.00% at $16.85 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $15.69 with a vector of -7.38%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Today only, we are going to do something we RARELY do!
We are offering LIFETIME ACCESS to our Stock Forecast Toolbox Membership!
This means that you will get Lifetime Access to our entire suite of trading tools, and after your initial payment, you will never be billed again for as long as you remain a member!
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