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After a Monday kickoff that saw major indices pull back, we’re seeing gains return to the Dow as Boeing shares climb post-earnings. A slew of economic data has also been released, which is slightly driving markets. January data from ADP showed an addition of 234,000 private-sector jobs, although investors typically look to Friday’s non-farm payroll report to confirm or deny the numbers. December data for U.S. pending home sales rose 0.5%, indicating the highest level since March. This is a strong figure but is only 0.5% higher year-to-date. The Chicago PMI- a gauge of manufacturing activity- pulled back 2.1 points to 65.7. Although the index slipped, figures over 50 are still considered strong and indicate improvements. On the political front, we saw a largely uneventful and tame State of the Union address from President Trump last night. Trump mixed hard talk with calls for unity- which always helps investor sentiment. His remarks were also mostly directed inward- domestically- rather than lashing out to potentially harm trade relations, particularly with China. Investors are going to be parsing the release of a policy update from the Fed today, which is expected to be more hawkish. The combination of economic data, earnings reports and policy outlooks around interest rates and inflation are going to create a whirlwind of sentiments this week.
At the time of publication, the DJIA is up 0.54%, or 139.29 points, at 26,215.76. The S&P 500 is trading at 2,826.77- up 0.15% from the open. The Nasdaq-100 is down 0.25% at 7,420.90.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows an uptrend. Today’s positive vector figure of +0.19% moves to +0.79% within three trading sessions. Today’s predicted support and resistance is 2,822.43 (± 3.76) and 2,852.61 (± 3.80), respectively. The predicted close today is 2,835.15. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade
On January 16, our ActiveInvestor service- which is included in Tradespoon’s Tools and Premium membership plans- generated a trade recommendation for Microsoft Corp. (MSFT). Our ActiveInvestor service is designed for swing trading with positions held 5-20 days on average.
Trade Breakdown
MSFT moved through the Entry 1 ($88.34, ± 0.33) range in the last hour of the January 16 trading day. The stock then built back up incrementally and hit our Target Price of $92.76 in the first hour of the January 24 trading day. The Stop Loss was set at $83.92.
Monday morning, we held a LIVE Trading Room Session where we had 10 out of 10 winners!
The winning trades ranged from 0.71% to over 44% ROI!
Our Live Trading Room is open every trading day from 9:15am Eastern Time, but these Live Trading Sessions are only available for Premium Members to attend Live.
Today, we decided to share the recording with you so you can see what you are missing.
We hope you’ll find it informative and helpful.
Our featured stock for Thursday is Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS). GS is presenting solid bullish trends in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B)– indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe. Our 10-day prediction model shows vector figures rising above +3.00% within the next three trading sessions. Our benchmark for vector figures is +1.00%.
*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
The stock is trading at $269.75 at the time of publication, up 0.30% from the open with a +0.70% vector figure.
Thursday’s prediction shows an open price of $275.72, a low of $272.90 and a high of $277.53.
The predicted close for Thursday is $275.71. Vector figures rise to +2.17% for Thursday and build throughout the forecast. This is a good signal for trading opportunities, because we use vectors as a primary factor in determining price movements for stocks and ETF.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relatively to average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
Oil
Crude prices are fluctuating today as investors digest EIA data showing gains in U.S. inventories- the first in 11 weeks. This was somewhat expected as the market has reached a potentially overbought level, with prices capping to highs not seen in recent years. We’ve already seen upticks in active rig counts, and we can expect this push-and-pull dynamic between U.S. drillers and OPEC producer countries to continue.
West Texas Intermediate for March delivery (CLH8) is priced at $64.31 per barrel at the time of publication, up 0.20% from the open after seeing dips.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows overall positive signals. The fund is trading at $12.90 at the time of publication, up 0.05% from the open. Today’s prediction sees support at $12.81 (± 0.04) and resistance at $12.99 (± 0.04). The predicted close for today is $12.92. Vector figures show -0.02% today, which reverse to +0.95% in three trading sessions and hold positive. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold
The price for February gold (GCG8) is up 0.35% at $1,343.80 a troy ounce at the time of publication. A weakening dollar is advancing the precious metal and investors will be parsing the Fed’s policy statement today to further inform positions in this safe-haven asset. Strong earnings, expectations of rising yields solid non-farm payroll job figures on Friday can put downward pressure on gold futures.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows a solid negative conviction. The gold proxy is trading at $127.17, up 0.29% at the time of publication. Today’s predicted low is $125.80 (± 0.22) and the predicted high is $127.18 (± 0.22). The predicted close today is $126.79. Vector signals show -0.55% for today, moving to -1.46% in the next three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Treasuries
Yields are seeing fluctuations today as investors compare strong economic signals with a Treasury Department announcement of an increase on bond issuance of $42 billion. ADP private-sector jobs data was strong, as was pending home sales in December, but investors will be looking to Friday for the Labor Department’s non-farm payroll numbers. Historically, these figures have been more authoritative than the ADP report, which always precedes it. The other major moving part in the equation is the Fed’s policy update today. An expectedly hawkish statement will have a direct impact on market sentiments around bonds and stocks, as interest rates increase. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 0.55% at 2.74% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see overall positive signals following initial downward trends in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.35% moves to +0.31% in three trading sessions and holds positive throughout. The ETF is priced at $122.16 at the time of publication, up 0.12%. The predicted close today is $121.53 with a low and high of $121.09 (± 0.23) and $122.01 (± 0.23), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin prices dipped below the $10,000 level within the past 24 hours as cryptocurrencies face regulatory headwinds and fresh news of a hacking theft at a Tokyo-based exchange. Bitcoin can be looked at as a bellwether for other virtual currencies with high market caps- which tend to mirror the leading coin’s behavior. Tokyo-based exchange Coincheck, in which 532 million units of virtual currency was stolen from a Tokyo-based exchange Coincheck, taking $426 million worth of tokens on the NEK blockchain.
The spot price for a single bitcoin (BTCUSD) is down 1.11% at $10,025.00 at the time of publication. CBOE’s February futures contract for bitcoin (XBTG8) is down 0.84% at $10,030.00 at the time of publication.
Grayscale’s Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) is used as a Bitcoin tracker in our Stock Forecast Toolbox. Grayscale initiated a 91-for-1 split over the weekend, drastically reducing the price per share. The proxy fund is currently trading at $15.56, down 11.14% from the open. Our models are still adjusting to the recent split, so we will not be featuring prediction data for the current trading session. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST.
Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is down 6.42% from the open at 13.84 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows overall positive signals. The bevy of economic data, earnings reports and monetary policy news will undoubtedly inject uncertainty into the markets this week. The predicted close today is 13.90 with a negative vector of -0.65%. Today’s predicted lows and highs are 13.62 (± 0.25) and 14.55 (± 0.27), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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