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Markets started off the week with mixed results as the Nasdaq and S&P closed lower while the Dow held on to small gains. News of two vaccines receiving the “fast track” status by the Food and Drug Administration supported U.S. markets in early morning trading while the continued rise of reported cases provided additional pressure. Corporate earnings season officially kicks off this week with major banks releasing Q2 data as well as key reports from Netflix, Microsoft, Delta Air Lines, and more. We believe the market remains overbought and we will continue monitoring VIX, as the market can overshoot support and resistance levels when VIX is trading near $30 level. Our models are projecting the SPY to trade between $296-$330 level and we are raising our “worst-case” short-term scenario to $296, with China clearly breaking out from their recent trading channel as sector leadership widens. Until the market reaches $320 level for SPY, aggressive traders can consider adding to their positions. We will look to be buyers into any short-term corrections. Short-term traders could consider adding to positions when SPY nears $293 and reduce exposure to the market at $320. We encourage maintaining clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:
Upcoming Earnings:
For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term positive outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Our featured symbol for Tuesday is Lowe’s (LOW). LOW is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for current-day predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $137.43, with a vector of 0.37% at the time of publication.
Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does not have a position in the featured symbol, LOW. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
On July 6th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for PayPal Holdings (PYPL). ActiveTrader is included in several Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading, with signals meant to last for 1-2 days.
Trade Breakdown
PYPL entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $177.21(± 1.24) in the second to last hour of trading that day(7/6/20) and passed through its Target price of $178.98 in the first hour of trading on 7/8/20. The Stop Loss price was set at $116.64.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $39.67 per barrel, down 1.07% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $29.03 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 0.49% at $1,805.20 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $169.19, at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.25% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 0.619% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up, at 1.311% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $32.19 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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