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Earnings season returns with major banks releasing data this week. Despite underwhelming results from Chase, the U.S. stock markets closed near session highs today, as bond yields dropped and inflation concerns slightly alleviated. Delta Air Lines, BlackRock, and Bed Bath & Beyond round out the marquee reports today while tomorrow additional reports from major banks are due. Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and PNC release their quarterly reports on Thursday, alongside Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Rite Aid, and U.S. Bancorp. Bond yields eased their recent climbs as the notion of peak inflation already being hit made its way through the market. If so, investors appear to received this positively in response to the latest CPI reports. Next week, key earnings reports will be released from Bank of America, Netflix, Tesla, and AT&T. Also next week, look out for the latest Fed-released Beige Book.
The geopolitical concerns in Ukraine and CPI/PPI data continue to have an impact on the market and likely inform the next move. We are monitoring the $VIX, which is currently trading near the 24 level, as well as other market indicators in order to anticipate future market movements. We’re keeping an eye on overhead resistance levels for the SPY, such as $451 and then $445, based on our technical analysis. The $SPY support level is at $438 and then $420. We expect the market to continue to trade higher in the next two to six weeks. In the short term, the market is oversold and will start the bottoming process in the next few sessions. Globally, markets traded prominently higher while some Asian and European markets saw mixed results. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The symbol is trading at $346.35 with a vector of -0.27% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, QQQ. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $104.29 per barrel, up 3.63% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $78.42 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.24% at $1980.80 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $184.65 at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.31% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down, at 2.697% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 2.804% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $21.82 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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