Dollar Breaks Out, Gold Fails, and Bonds Oversold

May 20, 2015
By Vlad Karpel

The S&P 500 ($SPY) has hit a new high but the uptrend trading continues to be choppy. The trend is your friend until support is broken, which would be at the $207 level on the $SPY. Tech ($QQQ) and Small Caps ($IWM) continue to move to the upside. The uptrend will stay intact until there is a challenge of $108 on the $QQQ and $122 on the $IWM.

The Bonds ($TLT) on the other hand continue to slide, down ~10 percent since April. But we have seen this action in $TLT in April. As you may remember $TLT was over sold in early April only to break support at $130, then begin to precipitously slide into the May lows. I have upside resistance at $122 on $TLT and until that price level is broken, this market remains oversold.

The Dollar ($UUP) continues to show strength, breaking resistance and reversing the short-term downtrend and now placing support at $25 on $UUP. A deeper break in the Euro ($FXE) could catalyze any upside in the Dollar.

Finally, Gold ($GLD) failed to hold last week’s breakout at $116.50. While this now establishes resistance at $116.50 on the Gold ETF, I still have it in a short-term up trend. Until there is a break of $114.50 this uptrend is still intact.

Have a great trading day!

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