DJIA opens at a record high, trailed by S&P 500 as tech shares rebound

June 19, 2017
By Vlad Karpel

In early trading today, the Dow met an all-time high, climbing to 21,457.1. The S&P 500 had also moved within striking distance of an intraday record. Previously suffering tech shares are seeing a rebound, which is helping to push major indexes higher. Investors and analysts alike are keeping track of this sector amidsts concern around potential overvaluation, following a mixed economic outlook from the Fed.  

The DJIA is currently up 0.47%, or 100.25 points, at 21,486. The Nasdaq-100 is up 1.17% at 6,224 and the S&P 500 is currently trading at 2,449 which is up 0.65% from the open.

Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows  consistent negative signals. Today’s negative vector figure of -0.17% moves to -0.67% in the next three sessions. Today’s predicted support and resistance is 2,431.43 (± 3.80) and 2,449.75 (± 3.83), respectively. The predicted close today is 2,439.10.   



Crude oil prices rose today, but the market is poised for volatility as investors look toward a continued rise in U.S production, as well as possible higher output from Nigeria and Libya. Some analysts are calling into question both the continued profitability for U.S output, as well as the stability of production in Libya and Nigeria due to internal conflicts. West Texas Intermediate for July delivery is currently priced at $44.86 per barrel, down 0.02% from the open.  

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows strong downward movement. The fund is currently trading at $9.20, which is down 0.43% from the open. Today’s prediction sees support at $9.16 (± 0.06) and resistance at $9.33 (± 0.06). The predicted close for today is $9.26. Vector figures show +0.07% for today, but shift downward, moving to -1.69% within three trading sessions.  All vector figures are based on today’s market conditions.  



The price for August gold is currently down 0.52% at $1,250.00 a troy ounce. A mostly hawkish outlook on the U.S economy, as well as another expected rate hike this year has pulled investment from the perceived safe-haven asset. Investors are rotating into equities in major stock indexes, which are perceived as risk assets. Gold becomes less attractive to investors holding foreign currencies when U.S dollar is strengthened, as it is priced in that currency. The dollar index (DXY) is currently up 0.27%.  

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows overall downward movement. The gold proxy is currently trading at $118.71, down 0.53% from the open. Today’s predicted low is $119.34 (± 0.25) and the predicted high is $120.08 (± 0.25). The predicted close today is $119.68.  



Treasury yields are climbing today as stock indexes traded higher along with the U.S. dollar. Last week’s Fed decision to raise interest rates also points to a somewhat hawkish outlook on the U.S economy. Although disappointing inflation rates are casting a ceiling over rising yields, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen had described recent weak economic data as “one-off”. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is currently up 0.93% at 2.17%. Bond prices and yields are typically inversely related to one another.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see an choppy, volatile trends in our 10-day prediction window. Relative to current conditions, we see vector figures moving from +0.22% today to -0.33% in three trading sessions.  The ETF is currently priced at $126.36- up 0.01% from the open. The predicted close today is $126.42 with a low and high of $126.12 (± 0.43) and $127.09 (± 0.43), respectively.  



The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently up 0.10% at 10.39, and our 10-day prediction window shows overall positive signals. The predicted close today is 10.55 with a negative vector of -0.16%. Today’s predicted lows and highs are 10.18 (± 0.32) and 11.45 (± 0.36), respectively.




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