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Hurricane Harvey is now categorized as a tropical storm after wreaking havoc in Texas over the weekend with lasting damages and flooding. Investors are keeping a close watch on how this storm may affect different market sectors and commodities- the major focus being on energy. A significant amount of the U.S.’s domestic refining operations take place on the Texas coast, particularly in and around Houston. Gasoline futures are climbing today, while crude oil prices drag. The storm is now heading toward Louisiana and is expected to cause further complications for the energy sector and other tertiary sectors like transportation. Today’s Fed auction of 2-year and 5-year bonds are in focus, and investors are looking toward a week of top-of-mind economic data for more clues on future Fed thinking around monetary policy.
Looking outward in the short-term: as long as we see $SPX under its 50 day moving average, the market should follow the path of least resistance to the downside and eventually retest its 100-day moving average.
The DJIA is currently down 0.11%, or 23.70 points, at 21,790. The S&P 500 is currently trading at 2,441.31- down 0.07% from the open. The Nasdaq-100 is up 0.17% at 6,276.38.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows overall mixed signals. Today’s negative vector figure of -0.04% sees a positive correction in the next trading session before a negative-to-positive oscillation in four-session blocks. Today’s predicted support and resistance is 2,431.54 (± 3.44) and 2,456.83 (± 3.48), respectively. The predicted close today is 2,448.90. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Our August 21 ActiveInvestor stock trade recommendation list featured Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT) and we see this performing very well. Our ActiveInvestor service is designed for swing-trading, so this recommendation is still actionable. On 8/21, we recommended entering a position at a primary entry of $298.66 (± 0.80) or a secondary entry of $291.19 (± 0.80). The primary entry price was hit and we saw LMT climb above $305 on 8/22. Our Target price is set at $313.59 with a stop-loss price of $283.73. ActiveInvestor recommendations are intended for positions held for 5-20 days, or until target or stop-loss prices are hit.
In our Expert Stock & Options Picks service, we closed a long position for Visa (V) on 8/21. This pick was made on 8/7, and we saw a $2.33 net gain for the stock trade, a $2.20 net gain for the option trade and a $0.70 net gain for the options spread trade.
*Stock % Gain/Loss is calculated by dividing the $ Gain/Loss by the Max Risk which is the posted Stop Loss for the trade.
Based on our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day prediction data, we’ve found 2 great candidates of interest. They are:
Our first must-buy stock for Tuesday, CA Technologies, is showing promising movement in our 10-day prediction window.
Our 10-day prediction model shows consistent, strong positive vector signals. The stock is currently trading at $32.50 with a +0.95% vector figure for today. Tomorrow’s prediction shows an open price of $33.86, a low of $32.81 and a high of $33.72. The predicted close for tomorrow is $32.84. Vector figures show +2.45% for tomorrow. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
PayPal, a leading payment processor, is seeing excellent signals in our Stock Forecast Tool’s 10-day prediction, following a strong earnings report showing year over year revenue growth of 18% for the most recent quarter.
Our 10-day prediction model shows incrementally building positive signals. The stock is currently trading at $60.24, which is up 0.45% from the open. Tomorrow’s prediction shows an open price of $60.29, a low of $59.39 and a high of $61.28. The predicted close for tomorrow is $60.34. Vector figures show +0.34% for tomorrow and climbs towards and above +1% within four more trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Crude oil prices fell Monday and gasoline futures surged as investors gauge the effects of Hurricane Harvey on U.S domestic production and refining operations. Major energy multinationals such as ExxonMobil (XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B) temporarily shut down Texas facilities, and similar shutdowns may occur has the now-tropical storm heads toward Louisiana. Although the storm had an impact on offshore crude production in the Gulf, the onshore refining facilities which were shut down may take weeks to become operational again. This will lessen the demand for crude oil, which is why this dynamic sees crude oil futures dropping and gasoline futures climbing almost 6% today. West Texas Intermediate for October delivery is currently priced at $46.75 per barrel, down 2.47% from the open.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows overall positive signals. The fund is currently trading at $9.52, which is down 2.36% from the open. Today’s prediction sees support at $9.69 (± 0.04) and resistance at $9.85 (± 0.04). The predicted close for today is $9.82. Vector figures show +0.48% for today, moving to +0.94% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for December gold is currently up 1.06% at $1,303.60 a troy ounce. The effects of Hurricane Harvey over the weekend- and anticipated lingering effects in coming weeks- has put pressure on the U.S dollar as investors begin to analyze strains on the economy. Last week’s central banking symposium saw speeches from both Fed Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen and European Central Bank president Mario Draghi. Yellen’s remarks did not offer any concrete information to better inform market participants about the Fed’s near-future monetary policy decisions, although most are still expecting a rate hike this year. ECB President Draghi had also been mum in his speech without making any significant news. Higher U.S interest rates make risk-assets more attractive to investors compared to a non-yield bearing asset such as gold, and higher rates also tend to strengthen the U.S dollar.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows overall negative signals. The gold proxy is currently trading at $124.21, up 1.20%. Today’s predicted low is $121.47 (± 0.30) and the predicted high is $122.81 (± 0.30). The predicted close today is $122.63. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
A Treasury Department auction of $26 billion worth of 2-year notes, and a $34 billion auction of 5-year notes is seeing bond yields slightly oscillating. Investors will need to wait for a series of economic data report this week which will also inform the Fed’s thinking around monetary policy. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is currently down 1.35% at 2.17%. Bond prices tend to move inversely to yields.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see overall positive signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.31% sees a reversal to negative signals within four trading sessions before returning to positive movement. The ETF is currently priced at $127.00- down 0.25% from the open. The predicted close today is $127.55 with a low and high of $127.32 (± 0.31) and $128.06 (± 0.32), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently up 5.50% at 11.90, and our 10-day prediction window shows strong negative signals. The predicted close today is 9.12 with a negative vector of -13.59%. Today’s predicted lows and highs are 8.65 (± 0.21) and 11.37 (± 0.27), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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