Bonds ($TLT) Down ~4 percent Last Week, Where will the Money Flow?

March 9, 2015
By Vlad Karpel

I have to keep it short today but I wanted to talk about the action last week, specifically bonds ($TLT). S&P 500 ($SPY) fell around 1.5 percent for the week, which is only a blip in this bullish trend. The bonds ($TLT) on the other hand fell~ 4.0 percent last week and are down ~10 percent the last month.

This is the type of rotation that we want to pay attention to if we are bullish on the market. There was quite a bit of money moved out of the bond market last week, and this money needs to be cycled somewhere. So, where will it go?

I think finance ($XLK) & healthcare ($XLV) may be sectors to put on the radar. Both held up well last week in the market weakness. What I have been staying away from is Utilities ($XLU), they do not hold up well in environments where rates could be on the move to the upside.

I am also watching regional banks ($KRE) and broker-dealer ($IAI). Each has shown relative strength. If rate hikes come more of a reality than just a sound bite, these stocks sectors would benefit.

Finally for you biotech ($IBB) traders, this sector has been strong. Be careful, this sector is looking frothy.

Have a great trading day!

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