Bonds Firm, Buck Holds, and Equities at New Highs

May 22, 2015
By Vlad Karpel

This has been a frustrating market to say the least. The S&P 500 ($SPY) hit new highs this week but still remains in a choppy uptrend.  Most days the large-cap index just chops around unchanged, or at least that is how it feels.  Yes it is hard to buy the trend at this stage, but I am not ready to sell it either.

Tech ($QQQ) and small-cap ($IWM) stocks continue in their up trends.  I have found some of the most interesting bullish candidates in these sectors: Facebook ($FB), F5 ($FFIV), and Check Point ($CHKP), just to name a few. You can get a comprehensive list using our Tradespoon Scoop Tool.

It will be interested to see if Bonds ($TLT) continue to bounce, especially going into the Fed meeting in June. This market has been pretty beat up. You may see some nervous stock bulls take advantage of the month long pull back in bonds to add a little exposure at these lower price levels.

The Dollar ($UUP) has broken out this week and continues to hold the $25 price level on the $UUP ETF. The weak Euro ($FXE) continues to catalyze the Dollar trade. A break above $110 on $FXE could put a halt on the bounce in the Buck.

Oil ($USO) got a bounce with $USO gaping to the upside through $20. I still consider Oil in a short-term downtrend, and would only change that conviction if $USO were to break $21.

Finally, for you Gold ($GLD) bugs, the shiny metal was unable to hold last week’s breakout. But fear not, the trend in May is still Gold Bulls friend. I will be watching any challenge of $115 on the downside of $GLD. A break at those levels could trigger a move to the May lows in the short term, ~$112. I use our Tradespoon Stock Forecast Toolbox to get these short and longer term trend levels. The Toolbox will forecast the stock price’s trend, turning points, movement vector’s direction, and “buy-sell” signals with stunning accuracy.

Have a great trading day, and long weekend!

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