RoboStreeet – January 10, 2020
Rally Extends Following De-Escalation of Iran Crisis
Buyers used the short-lived market correction to eagerly commit capital to leading-stocks and sectors resulting in the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq trading to new all-time highs in broad rally making for a good start to 2020. President Trump has initiated tougher sanctions on Iran that will keep economic pressure on Iran and tensions high.
Markets also warmed to yesterday’s ADP data for December confirming solid labor market conditions. The Boeing plane crash in Iran is now being reported as an error on the Iranian air defense force that accidentally shot down the passenger plane with a missile. Shares of Boeing Co. (BA) rallied +1.6% on the news.
And remember we’re not talking about day-trading here. I’m looking for 50-100% gains inside of the next 3 months, so my weekly updates are timely enough for you to act.
These developments and the stress of investors feeling they are missing out on the next leg of the bull market have boosted the major averages led by technology, financials, healthcare, industrials and metals, and mining. A steady bond market, retreating oil prices and a softer dollar has also contributed to the market’s current strength.
Touching further on Iran, the Mideast and oil, it is notable that WTI crude didn’t clear at least $70/bbl went the crisis started taking on the look of a full-scale war about to unfold as was the case in prior Mideast clashes. WTI briefly trade to $63/bbl and has summarily pulled back to $59 as of yesterday.
High global oil supplies and the ability to deliver product to market rapidly from non-Mideast sources has changed the calculus about the gravity of oil price shocks. With that said, there is decent support at $57 on the notion that the global economic growth rate is going to begin to rebound in 2020 and thus drive higher demand for crude.
Of the major oil companies I like to trade for our RoboInvestor Portfolio, Chevron Corp. (CVX) stands out as a best of breed blue-chip integrated energy company. As a Dow component operating upstream, midstream and downstream businesses and sporting a 4.05% dividend yield, Chevron is an institutional favorite for good reasons.
The stock trades at $117.60 or about 10 points off its 52-week high. My AI-driven Seasonal Chart shows the stock working through the low end of its trading range for the next month and then rebounding in mid-February. The stock has key support at $116 and therefore is set up nicely for a late winter rally.
The downtrend in the dollar since peaking in early October is also notable. Following the Fed’s policy directive to move its stance to neutral, the greenback began a steady slide that got a short-term boost from the Iranian crisis.
However, fading this brief geopolitically-related rally is setting up as an attractive trade. Looking at the DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP), the gap lower in mid-December is being filled to the upside where 26.50 is keeping overhead resistance and a strong candidate for putting on a short position.
Conversely, the chart of the Emerging Market iShares MSCI ETF (EEM) is a clear winner against the backdrop of a weaker dollar, stable crude prices, improving trade conditions between the U.S. and China and a reflating global economy. Unlike the major averages in the U.S. and the global large-cap indexes that have hit new all-time highs, shares of EEM topped out at $55 in late 2007 and have been stagnant for 12 years.
A gradual pickup in GDP growth and inflation in 2020 could set the table for a breakout move in this sector which will have to be led by China. I’ve been trading the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) in our Tradespoon Premium Portfolio on renewed optimism of better trade relations with the U.S.
Heading into earnings season, the market is a bit frothy and overbought but can remain so for extended periods. There is clearly a lot of sideline cash that wants in and the bulls aren’t giving up any ground. Our RoboIvestor Portfolio is charging higher led by holdings in Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), JP Morgan (JPM), iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), Target Corp. (TGT), BlackRock Inc. (BLK), NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) and Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO).
I’ve been booking profits all the way up. In fact, RoboInvestor subscribers have rung the register on 24 of the last 25 trades. Our Winning Trade Percentage is a stunning 89.29%. Essentially, we’re making money in 9 out of every 10 trades for the past two years. This kind of performance is simply not possible without the most cutting-edge algorithm that I’ve created and continue to tailor for our purposes.
This is as close to a perfect trading system as it possibly gets. Take a moment and come alongside me and our community of RoboInvestors and change your success rate in the market forever. It just takes a minute, and in doing so, has the potential to contribute an enormous and positive impact on your portfolio.
When a proven and winning formula such as RoboInvestor presents itself so clearly, there is no better time than the present to act. Do it today and make 2020 the best market experience ever!
And remember we’re not talking about day-trading here. I’m looking for 50-100% gains inside of the next 3 months, so my weekly updates are timely enough for you to act.
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