After Dow breaks 19000, markets settle in for Thanksgiving holiday

November 23, 2016
By Vlad Karpel

For the first time in history on Tuesday, the Dow closed above 19000. This movement followed record setting streaks in other major indexes, and we can expect slight dips. The S&P 500 is hitting its own proverbial ceiling, trading at 2199.13 which is down 0.17% from its open. The blue-chip index has been breaching 2200 in the past few days, so we can expect containment in the near future. The Dow is up 0.11% at 19045.85, and the Nasdaq is down 23.66 points, or 0.44%, at 5362.89.

Futures across these indexes have all pulled back as well. DJIA futures dropped 6 points, at 19,001, and is likely course-correcting downward. In similar circumstances, S&P futures are down 1 point to 2,199.75. Nasdaq-100 futures also pulled back 5 points to 4,870.

Unemployment claims have jumped 18,000 to 251,000 during the middle of November. That number is still well below the 300,000 mark and has remained under that figure for 90 straight weeks, a record streak. U.S. durable goods rose 4.8% this past October, which was largely due to of commercial aircraft demand.  


Gold is pulling back at 27.20 points, or 2.22% at $1184 currently. As the US dollar remains relatively strong, and volatility wanes, we can expect a continued decline. Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see steady declines in the 10-day outlook. It is currently trading at 113.13 which is down 0.74, or 2.09%. Our models show a strong downward vector, oscillating between 1% and 2%.




The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is still holding a new calm, trading at 12.61 and likely staying low for the foreseeable future. Our 10-day prediction model shows consistent downward vectors with occasional positive bumps. Resistance is predicted to range between ~13 and ~14. Predicted support is heading below 10 within the next week.




Crude oil is has been climbing ahead of predicted agreements around production cuts at next week’s OPEC meeting. Recent releases from both the U.S Energy Information Administration and the American Petroleum Institute show declines in crude inventories. There is, however, still a degree of uncertainty around the outcome of the meeting. West Texas Intermediate is currently trading at $47.98, a slight dip of 0.12%.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model show strong, consistent upward vectors, rising from ~2% to ~12% within the coming sessions. The fund is currently trading at 10.6745, up 0.42% from its open. Today’s prediction sees support at 10.58 and resistance at 10.81. Standard deviation for both of these figures is 0.06. The predicted resistance points to 12.28 at the end of the window, and the predicted support hits 11.96 at the end of the outlook.



In other news

President-elect Donald Trump has told a New York Times interviewer that he will be able to run his businesses without breaching conflict-of-interest laws as the new President of the United States. It is technically true that these laws do not apply to Presidents, and his statements have constitutional backing. He is likely to remain engaged in global climate-change initiatives, will not try to prosecute Hillary Clinton, and is appearing to back away from notions of a U.S-Russia ‘reset’ in relations.

Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY) shares took a sharp decline following reports that an Alzheimer’s treatment has failed its goals in late-stage trials. Shares are currently down 11.89%.  

Both Hewlett Packard companies have posted declines in revenue. Hewlett Packard Co. recently split into two entities to handle both enterprise infrastructure and retail products. Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE) is reporting a fourth-quarter revenue drop of 7%. HP Inc. (HPQ) saw a 2% revenue increase this quarter, but its revenue for fiscal 2016 is down 6% at $48.2 billion.

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