After German political tensions turned down over the weekends, investors are looking toward tax reform plans and switching to a risk-on attitude. Although major U.S. indices are recovering from previous slides, we’ll see a drop in volume as we approach the Thanksgiving weekend. The Euro (EURUSD) had dropped but since recovered after a breakdown in coalition talks in the German government. This situation had brought uncertainty to Chancellor Angela Merkel’s leadership position.
At the time of publication, the DJIA is up 0.40%, or 92.82 points, at 23,450. The S&P 500 is trading at 2,582- up 0.13% from the open. The Nasdaq-100 is up 0.07% at 6,787.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows consistent negative signals. Today’s negative vector figure of -0.26% moves to -0.34% within three trading sessions. Today’s predicted support and resistance is 2,568.97 (± 2.79) and 2,578.85 (± 2.80), respectively. The predicted close today is 2,569.66. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade
On November 17, our ActiveTrader service- included in all of our membership plans- generated a Bullish recommendation for the D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI).
DHI opened up within its Entry 1 ($47.52, ± 0.14) price range and moved through its Target of $48.00 within the three hours of the trading session. The Stop Loss was set at $47.04.
Our must-buy stock for Tuesday is Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM). This stock is assigned a Model Grade of B, indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy relative to our entire data universe. Our 10-day prediction model shows vector figures climbing above +2.00% within the next trading session. Our benchmark for vector figures is +1.00%.
The stock is trading at $66.60 at the time of publication, down 0.18% from the open with a +1.53% vector figure.
Tuesday’s prediction shows an open price of $68.90, a low of $67.48 and a high of $69.36.
The predicted close for Tuesday is $67.48. Vector figures show +2.51% for tomorrow, holding strong throughout the forecast. This is a good signal for trading opportunities, because the vectors are a primary factor in determining price movements for stocks and ETF.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relatively to average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
Oil futures have retreated to a temporary ‘wait-and-see’ mode as investors await the upcoming November 30 OPEC meeting. This meeting will likely determine the future of the global production cut deal struck last year. While most expect an extension of the deal, there are some caveats to that decision that may weigh on prices going forward. The most clear and present dynamic that exists is between the higher prices due to OPEC activity and the response from U.S. shale producers. When OPEC member-countries cut production and increase prices, U.S. producers will typically take advantage of the price hikes and ramp up output- particularly shale. This will likely keep prices in an equilibrium, rather than drag them down. OPEC ministers and member-countries will weigh this dynamic when considering the terms of the deal later this month. West Texas Intermediate for January delivery is priced at $56.11 per barrel at the time of publication, down 0.92% from the open.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows overall negative signals. The fund is trading at $11.25 at the time of publication, down 0.89% from the open. Today’s prediction sees support at $11.27 (± 0.04) and resistance at $11.46 (± 0.04). The predicted close for today is $11.29. Vector figures show +0.58% today, moving to -0.65% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for December gold is down 1.45% at $1,285.70 a troy ounce at the time of publication. Gold futures had climbed last week as the progression of the investigation into Russia’s involvement in last year’s presidential election ratcheted up uncertainties around passing tax reform. Today’s drop in the Euro, due to temporary German political troubles, boosted the U.S. dollar and ignited a gold sell-off.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows overall negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $121.29, down 1.28% at the time of publication. Today’s predicted low is $121.28 (± 0.27) and the predicted high is $122.86 (± 0.27). The predicted close today is $122.35. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Yields are pushing higher as geopolitical worries in Germany smooth over, and investors turn to a more optimistic outlook on tax reform. In a major development, U.S. President Donald Trump indicated he would remove a health care repeal provision in order to move forward with the bill. The White House will likely continue to aim to rally Republicans around a bill that can be passed with unanimity. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 1.02% at 2.36% at the time of publication. Bond prices tend to move inversely to yields.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see overall negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.21% moves to -0.31% within the next three trading sessions. The ETF is priced at $126.09 at the time of publication- down 0.24% from the open. The predicted close today is $126.35 with a low and high of $126.33 (± 0.27) and $126.87 (± 0.27), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is down 7.70% to 10.55 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows consistent negative signals. As German geopolitical tensions cool off and we see more stability in a tax reform agenda, market participants are coming back from a previous risk-off attitude. The upcoming Thanksgiving holiday and short Friday trading session will likely see muted trading activity and reduced volumes as well. The predicted close today is 10.37 with a negative vector of -6.66%. Today’s predicted lows and highs are 9.77 (± 0.17) and 12.14 (± 0.21), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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