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All three major U.S. indices saw 1% drops at their session lows today as investors react to retaliatory tariff measures outlined by China’s Ministry of Commerce. As a response to plans from the Trump administration to impose 25% tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods on Tuesday, Chinese officials responded with tentative plans for an equal measure against U.S. goods. American exports targeted include soybeans, cars, chemicals and airplanes- all of which may impact corporate performance in those respective industry categories. Boeing Co. (BA), Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), and General Electric (GE) are all seeing the effects of exposure to the news today with early trading losses. Although the DJIA, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index are appearing to show recoveries at the time of publication, investors will be monitoring industry sectors closely tied to Chinese tariff effects. Industrials saw the steepest drop as sector today, falling 1.2%.
On the tech front, market participants are keeping tabs on the ongoing major stories. Facebook chief Mark Zuckerberg is set to testify to the House Energy and Commerce Committee on April 11, raising investor concerns around growing scrutiny from lawmakers. Potential regulatory measures, or fines imposed on the social media giant would directly impact its business operations. Facebook Inc. (FB) saw bear-market territory recently, and is down 2.65% at the time of publication.
Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) dropped 1.4% in early trading Wednesday, following a series of tweets from President Trump which criticized the e-commerce giant around taxes and business practices. Investors will be cautiously monitoring this story to determine if the President’s online ire will result in any concrete policy action.
ADP private-sector jobs numbers were released late Tuesday, showing a higher-than-expected rise in hiring for March with 241,000 jobs added. This report is typically followed up by official government nonfarm payroll numbers, due on Friday. The latter report is generally received as more credible, so investors will be focusing on that data over the ADP report. Economic data and corporate earnings this week may have less influence than usual due to the overhanging global trade concerns, but strong numbers may serve as a kind of equities buffer.
At the time of publication, the DJIA is down 0.33%, or 78.95 points, at 23,956.15. The S&P 500 is at 2,612.27 – down 0.08% from the open. The Nasdaq-100 is up 0.20% at 6,955.73.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows all positive signals. Today’s vector figure of 0.53% rises to 1.63% within three trading sessions. Today’s predicted support and resistance levels are 2,594.98 (±11.48) and 2,620.61 (± 11.59), respectively. The predicted close today is 2,599.11. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade
On April 3, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Guess?, Inc. (GES). ActiveTrader, included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans, is designed for intraday trading.
Trade Breakdown
GES opened within the Entry 1 price range of $20.88 (± 0.21) at $20.80, moving through its Target Price of $21.09 within the first hour of trading. The Stop Loss was set at $20.67.
Our featured stock for Thursday is The AES Corporation (AES). AES is showing a confident uptrend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A)– indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe. Our 10-day prediction model shows positive vector figure of +0.50% for today which incrementally builds above +2.00% throughout the 10-day forecast. Our benchmark for vector figures is +1.00%.
*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
The stock is trading at $11.46 at the time of publication, down 0.35% from the open with a +0.50% vector figure.
Thursday’s prediction shows an open price of $11.41, a low of $11.40 and a high of $11.67.
The predicted close for Thursday is $11.60. Vector figures jump to +1.15% on Thursday and drive upward from there. This is a good signal for trading opportunities, because we use vectors as a primary factor in determining price movements for stocks and ETF.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relatively to average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
Live Trading Room Update
When the market was down last week, see how we traded in volatile conditions and what you might expect in our next Live Trading Room. During recent volatility, we held Live Trading Room Session where our winning trades ranged 16.67% to over 48% ROI!
| Symbol | Net Gain % |
| SPY (Option) | 36.59% |
| MSFT (Option) | 39.02% |
| EA (Option) | 48.48% |
| GE (Option) | 32.65% |
| SCHW | -76.52% |
| SCHW (Option) | 16.67% |
| GOOGL | 32.60% |
Our Live Trading Room is open every trading day from 9:15 am Eastern Time, but these Live Trading Sessions are only available for Premium Members.
We wanted to share the recording with you so you can see the profits you might be missing- even during very volatile markets.
Oil
U.S./China trade war anxieties are bleeding over into the crude oil market, even as weekly data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a supply drop. While the trade spat story evolves, investors in this market will be pulling back from micro level data which typically informs activity week to week. Longer-term, broader implications for the global economy will likely take precedence over supply and production data for the time being. West Texas Intermediate for May delivery (CLK8) is priced at $62.36 per barrel at the time of publication, down 0.91% from the open.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows overall positive signals. The fund is trading at $12.72 at the time of publication, down 0.70% from the open. Today’s prediction sees support at $12.71 (± 0.06) and resistance at $12.92 (± 0.06). The predicted close for today is $12.82. Vector figures show +0.18% today, which turn negative for the next two trading sessions before reversing to positive territory. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session. 
Gold
The price for June gold (GCM8) is up 0.24% at $1,339.40 at the time of publication. The metal is seeing a safe-haven drive as investors look for cover from risk-assets during a time of uncertainty. This action has also been buoyed by a slightly weaker U.S. dollar- the currency in which gold is denominated. Although ADP reports showed a much higher than expected private-sector jobs report for March, the news will be overshadowed by global trade worries. Additionally, investors typically rely on Friday’s official nonfarm payroll numbers as the ADP report is seen as less accurate.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows overall positive signals. The gold proxy is trading at $126.64, up 0.27% at the time of publication. Today’s predicted low is $126.30 (± 0.32) and the predicted high is $127.17 (± 0.32). The predicted close today is $127.05. Vector signals show +0.27% for today, fluctuating above +1.00% and back down toward the end of the forecast. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Treasuries
Treasury yields were pushed lower today- and are struggling for direction- as bond prices surge due to safe haven buying amidst spiked volatility. As with most other market sectors, the eye-for-an-eye dynamic between the Trump administration and Beijing is driving investors from risk-assets to those which provide shelter from stock sell offs. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note fell 2 basis points, but is up 0.17% at 2.29% at the time of publication. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped 3.5 basis points, and is down 0.03% at 2.78% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note slid 3 basis points, and is up 0.12% at 3.02% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see positive signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.08% moves to 0.42% within three trading sessions. The ETF is priced at $120.95 at the time of publication, up 0.01%. The predicted close today is $121.43 with a low and high of $120.94 (± 0.23) and $121.70 (± 0.23), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 6.45% at 22.46 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows overall positive signals. It’s safe to say that this week has been a volatile one. Monday saw a sharp sell off, followed by all indices gaining over 1% on Tuesday and today’s trading shows a gradual comeback from a broad drop over 1%. The predicted close for today is 21.20 with a vector of -3.71%. The predicted lows and highs are 20.01 (± 1.10) and 22.84 (± 1.26), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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