Stealing Spotlight from Earnings, Oil Surges and Dollar Booms

All three major indices are on the move today, trading higher behind rising oil prices that are supporting energy stocks and building off a strong Friday. With more earnings set to release this week the dollar’s four-week advance looks to continue while higher inflation worries remain. Looking at my seasonal charts, we can see the S&P 50-day moving average has been reached, inciting bulls to believe, and hope, we have a couple more days above the 50-day moving averages. To highlight such trends, and trading opportunities, I recommend comparing seasonal charts with my Stock Forecast Toolbox generated-predictions, providing both a long and short-term market outlook.

Earning calls and geopolitical news continues to dominate headlines. Major earnings reports this week include AMC, Hertz, and Zillow. Tyson, reporting before market open, saw sales and earnings in the quarter come in below expectations, sliding the stock 3% in premarket movement before trading slightly higher as the day went on. After last week’s major merger Monday today paled light in comparison, with the only major news of that sort involving Nestle and Starbucks, both seeing decent boosts, as the former announced $7.5 billion upfront to market the latter’s products worldwide. A joint press conference between both companies is scheduled for later today.

Globally, Iran and China remain as major points of interest for investors. President Trump must make a decision by May 12 whether to annul the Iran deal which has put certain pressure on crude oil prices, causing the commodity to go above $70 per barrel, a four-year high. In Beijing, U.S. and Chinese negotiators met and while no deal or significant news broke from this meeting, general attitudes coming out of the meeting have been positive, another signal we are further from the trade war we feared was certain last month.

In Fed news, the 23rd Annual Financial Markets Conference will take place today in Florida where both Chicago and Dallas Fed Presidents will speak. Investors should monitor news from such events for further insight on market attitudes and direction, especially after last week’s relatively light-on-action Fed official meeting. Richmond Fed President is also scheduled to speak today.

Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mostly negative signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.25% moves to -1.31% in two trading sessions before dipping further into negative territory. Today’s predicted support and resistance levels are 2,609.15 (±9.15) and 2,674.35 (± 9.38), respectively. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,621.69. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  

Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade

On May 4th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Juniper Networks, Inc. (JNPR). ActiveTrader, included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans, is designed for intraday trading.

Trade Breakdown

JNPR opened near Entry 1 price range of $24.96 (± 0.15), moving through its Target Price of $25.21 in its first hour of trading, reaching $25.52. The Stop Loss was set at $24.71.

Tuesday Morning- Buy, Buy, Buy

Our featured stock for Tuesday is Juniper Networks, Inc. (JNPR). JNPR is showing a confident uptrend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A)– indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe. Our 10-day prediction model shows positive vector figure reaching +2.00% in two trading session which then incrementally build throughout the 10-day forecast. Our benchmark for vector figures is +1.00%

*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks,  please click here.

The stock is trading at $26.015 at the time of publication, up 1.38% from the open with a +1.19% vector figure.

Tuesday’s prediction shows an open price of $25.30, a low of $25.15 and a high of $26.19.

The predicted close for Tuesday is $26.06. Vector figures jump to +1.51% on Tuesday and drive upward from there. This is a good signal for trading opportunities because we use vectors as a primary factor in determining price movements for stocks and ETF.

Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.

Oil

West Texas Intermediate for June delivery (CLM8) is priced at $70.48 per barrel, up 1.13% from the open, at the time of publication. Investors seem to be preparing for the U.S. to withdraw from the Iran deal as oil prices climbed over $70 per barrel, a first since 2004. The May 12 decision could influence global supply and stifle oil exports from Iran.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mostly negative signals. The fund is trading at $14.25 at the time of publication, up 1.14% from the open. Tomorrow’s prediction sees support at $13.77 and resistance at $14.16. The predicted close for tomorrow is $14.01. Vector figures show +0.66% today, which turning -1.26% in two trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Gold

Although the commodity should be taking a stronger beating as the dollar builds on its 4-week advance and the recent surge in oil prices grows, gold looks to trade slightly lower for the day, faring well after almost hitting a multi-month low last week. Inflation remains a point of concern for the commodity trader, a consumer credit report for the month of March set to release later today could be another good indicator at the possible rate of inflation. The price for June gold (GCM8) is down 0.02% at $1,314.50 at the time of publication.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows all negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $124.56, up .02% at the time of publication. Tomorrow’s predicted low is $122.69 and the predicted high is $123.24. The predicted close for tomorrow is $123.12. Vector signals show -0.28% for today, reaching -1.11% in one trading session. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Treasuries

Bond yields inched higher today, seeing some pressure from Iran and China in light of mostly strong earnings. Rising oil prices and trade disputes, as well as other geopolitical turmoil for that matter, will mostly affect long-dated bonds. Investors should continue monitoring such events for signals on market direction. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 0.32% at 2.96% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up .06% from the open at 3.12%.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see all positive signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.14% moves to +.08% in five trading sessions. The ETF is priced at $118.82 at the time of publication, down 0.14%. The predicted close tomorrow is $118.99 with a low and high of $118.40 and $119.79, respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up .61% at 14.86 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mostly positive signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is 16.67 with a vector of +11.98%. The predicted lows and highs for tomorrow are 16.13 and 17.70, respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.