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All three major U.S. indices are on track to close lower today after edging lower on Tuesday. Bank of America second-quarter earnings were released this morning, topping expectations and helping shares rise. The first of FANG earnings are due to release today with Netflix reporting after the market closes. IBM and eBay are also scheduled to report today while tomorrow we will see Microsoft, Honeywell, and Philip Morris. Global trade is back in the spotlight after President Trump reiterated his intent to add tariffs should progress on a U.S.-China trade deal continue to stall. Look for the Fed Beige book set to release today and update investors on the current state of the U.S. economy. The SPY continues to trade at an all-time high level and we encourage readers to avoid chasing near $300 consider buying near $290 level. We remained focused on big-name second-quarter corporate earnings as well as today’s Beige Book which could affect markets. Still, we do not see market momentum pushing SPY above much higher than $300, potentially overshooting to $305. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Major U.S. indices snapped a record streak yesterday by closing in the red and are on track to do so again today. Global trade tensions resumed yesterday when President Trump stated he would put forth further tariffs which prompted China to respond with their own message, stating they would also enforce another round of tariffs. This hit both U.S. and Asian markets yesterday to trade lower. Today, both Asian and European markets closed in the red.
Bank of America reported this morning to better than expected result which helped shares rise 2%. Still ahead for major financial Q2 earnings are Morgan Stanley, Capital One, American Express, and HDFC Bank. Netflix will report after market close today which will be the first earnings report since last April’s underwhelming results. In April’s report, the company mentioned weaker subscriber growth numbers in both the U.S. and internationally. With an increase in competition over the last fiscal year, investors will be focused on revenue and subscription data as well as questions regarding original content spending and the shrinking content library. Currently, Netflix is on track to close in the red ahead of its earnings release. Look for Microsoft, Unitedhealth, Honeywell, and Chewy to release earnings tomorrow.
Besides earnings, the next biggest report will be today’s Fed Beige Book. All 12 regional banks reported growth with a mostly positive outlook. Consumer spending grew impressively while employment maintained at all-time high levels, with several sectors reporting employee shortages. Wages were also reported to have grown. One concern that trended in all twelve regions came from manufactures which expressed concern over global trade and tariff uncertainty. The report presented a healthy and growing economy, which coupled with previous inflation data and the latest comments from Fed Chair Powell signal a likely interest rate cut in the near future. Look for this as early as this month’s FOMC, taking place July 30-31. Tomorrow, leading economic indicators for the month of June will be released while Friday will feature July’s consumer sentiment report.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Today’s vector figure of -0.27% moves to -1.03% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6pm, CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On June 28th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for CenturyLink Inc (CTL). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.
Trade Breakdown
CTL entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $11.64 (± 0.09) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price $11.76 in the fifth hour of trading that day. The Stop Loss price was set at $11.52.
*Please note: At the time of publication we do not own the featured symbol, ES. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
Our featured symbol for Thursday is Eversource Energy (ES). ES is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A) indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $77.39 at the time of publication, with a +0.00% vector figure.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $56.62 per barrel, down 1.74% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows positive signals. The fund is trading at $11.77 at the time of publication, down 2.00% from the open. Vector figures show +0.27% today, which turns
+2.14% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.97% at $1,424.90 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $134.21, up 1.00% at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.48% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 2.07% at 2.06% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 1.56% at 2.57% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.19% moves to -1.47% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 3.89% at $13.36 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $12.61 with a vector of +1.38%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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